Last Weeks Economic News in Review Consumer credit posted its biggest monthly gain since 2001; retail sales bucked predictions of a lull and posted a gain, instead; and initial jobless claims grew, but remained at healthy levels. Consumer Credit Consumer credit scored its biggest gain in nearly 13 years in July, with borrowing for the month growing by 9.7 percent to reach a total of $3.23 trillion, the Federal Reserve reported last week. This marked a $26 billion gain, which was well over the $17 billion the market had expected. Consumer credit hasn’t seen that big a monthly gain since a $28 billion spike in November 2001. Non-revolving credit, such as car and student loans, posted the biggest increase, enjoying a 10.6 percent gain in July to hit $2.35 trillion. That said, revolving debt, such as credit cards, also posted a sizable 7.4 percent increase to hit $880.5 billion. The spike in non-revolving debt was driven by car loans, according to FTN Financial Chief Economist Chris Low. “The only thing we have to worry about is there is excessive risk-taking in the auto sector,” Low told the Reuters news service. “But it’s still a good thing for the economy at least in the short term. Car sales are back to where they were before the financial crisis, which is remarkable.” Retail Sales If consumer spending was supposed to see a summer lull, someone forgot to tell the consumers. Retail and food service sales totaled $444.4 billion in August, an increase of 0.6 percent over July and a 5 percent increase from August 2013, according to data released by the Census Bureau last week. In line with August’s consumer credit numbers, spending gained across a number of categories, including motor vehicles and parts, which grew by 1.5 percent; building materials, which were up 1.4 percent; sport goods, hobby, book and music stories, which grew 0.9 percent; and health and personal care retailers, which posed a 0.6 percent gain. “Consumers are not going hog wild, but they are responding to the better labor market by gradually increasing their spending,” PNC Financial Services Group chief economist Stuart Hoffman told the Wall Street Journal. Initial Jobless Claims First-time claims for unemployment benefits filed by the newly unemployed during the week ending Sept. 6 hit 315,000, a gain of 11,000 claims from the prior week’s revised level of 304,000, according to last week’s report from the Employment and Training Administration. While the total was over the market expectation of a dip to 300,000 claims, initial jobless claims were still hovering around pre-recession levels. Moreover, because the totals fell over the Labor Day holiday, that could have influenced the results. “Claims have been running around 300,000 for a couple of months now, so I would not regard this as a deterioration in labor demand,” RBS Securities Inc. U.S. economist Omair Sharif told Bloomberg. “It was during Labor Day holiday, so odds are that there are some seasonal adjustment problems. Underlying labor demand remains very firm, and certainly that is going to help consumer spending going forward.” Bearing that in mind, the four-week moving average, which is considered a more stable measure of near-term employment activity, ticked up to 304,000, which was a slight, 750-claim increase over the preceding week’s revised average of 303,250. This week, we can expect: Monday — August industrial production and capacity utilization from the Federal Reserve. Tuesday — August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wednesday — August consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thursday — Initial jobless claims for last week from the Employment and Training Administration; August housing starts and construction permits from the Census Bureau. Friday — Leading economic indicators for August from The Conference Board. JENNIFER TOLLEY Market Leader direct: (864) 886-2278 cell: (864) 760-8258 fax: (864) 633-5899 NMLS: 78886 4107 Liberty Hwy Anderson, SC 29607 Email Me Visit My Website
Posted on: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 17:05:55 +0000
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