Last full week of trading in 2014 and there was plenty going on news-wise. Corn finished the day mixed on either side of unchanged while CH gained 3 cents this week. Funds were sellers of 2,000 contracts by mid-day. The China/MIR 162 issue seemingly was resolved this week with the trade coming to the conclusion this was beneficial to DDGS exports but would not have much if any impact on actual corn exports to China. Weekly ethanol corn usage report at 104 mln. bu. shows continued good demand but there is concern in the background over being able to continue this pace. Weekly corn export sales of 27.3 mln. bu. (YTD commitments at .961 bln. bu. vs. 1.041 last year) did not excite the market but we did sell 101 tmt of corn to Mexico and 135 tmt to Japan in overnight announcements. Informa’s latest acreage estimate for 2015 came in at 88.0 mln. acres, 2.9 mln. acres below 2014, though possibly not as big a drop as indicated as the market will not be surprised by a drop in 2014 acres in January’s S&D report. Informa estimates 2015 corn production at 13.4 bln. bu. A lower carryout for 14/15 and less production in 2015 coupled with steady demand, and 15/16 ending stocks could approach 1.5 bln. bu. This is probably in the back of the market’s mind. Soybeans were defensive through the session with funds selling 3,000 contracts by mid-day and futures closing 3-5 cents lower. SF lost 17 cents this week. A “disappointing” November crush number of 161 mln. bu. on Monday set the tone for beans this week. Weekly export sales of 25.6 mln. bu. are not bad but allow bears to point to declining weekly sales (still, YTD commitments are 1.512 bln. bu. vs. 1.431 bln. bu. last year.) S. American weather remains non-threatening other than some dry areas in southern Argentina. Market finally starting to pay attention to big bean supplies in North and South America? Informa’s latest acreage estimate for 2015 is 88.8 mln. bu., 4.6 mln. acres above 2014. Informa estimates 2015 production at 3.96 bln. bu. If realized, soybean carryout in 15/16 could exceed 650 mln. bu.
Posted on: Fri, 19 Dec 2014 20:54:29 +0000
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