Latest National Weather Service Area Discussion regarding our current and upcoming weather issued as of 9:33am CST: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1033 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]... Line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing across the forecast area this morning. Given the moderate levels of low-level and deep layer shear and marginal instability, a few strong to severe cells will continue to be embedded within the line. Damaging straight- line winds will be the primary threat. However, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Have updated the grids to account for the eastward progress of the rain. The activity is forecast to remain progressive, which will limit the threat for localized flooding. A cooler airmass will begin to move into the western counties by early afternoon in the wake of the cold front. && .Aviation... [Through 12Z Monday] Line of thunderstorms has cleared KDHN and KECP. Storms should clear KABY and KTLH by 17Z and KVLD by mid afternoon. MVFR cigs are likely to continue through the afternoon, both ahead of and behind the storms. Winds will become northwesterly once the cold front passes in the afternoon/evening hours. && .Prev Discussion [325 AM EST]... .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... The cold front will sweep southeast of Dixie County by around 02Z with some light rain perhaps lingering behind the boundary for a couple of hours. PoPs will range from 20 along the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers to 60 over the Lower Suwannee Valley. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the front. Temps by daybreak Monday will range from the upper 30s north and west of Dothan and Albany to the mid 40s in Tallahassee and lower 50s in Dixie County. Highs will be a couple of degrees below normal ranging from the mid 50s over Southeast AL to the mid 60s in Dixie. Monday night will see most inland areas dip into the 30s with a brief light freeze possible north and west of Dothan and Albany. Frost could occur as far southeast as Tallahassee. Highs on Tuesday will be 6-9 degrees warmer than on Monday. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... The main story this period will be the frigid air mass that arrives after the passage of an arctic front Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Guidance is coming into better agreement that we will see a hard freeze across most of our inland counties Wednesday night and Thursday morning. In addition, wind chill readings could drop into the lower teens which would prompt advisories. Thursdays high temps will only range from around 40 degrees north of Albany and Dothan to the mid 40s near the coast. Another widespread hard freeze is expected Thursday night. However, with much lighter winds in place by that time, wind chill readings should drop no lower than about 20 degrees. It should be noted that some of the operational MOS is colder than the typical blend we use and a downward adjustment was once again coordinated with neighboring offices, mainly for Friday morning. A gradual moderating trend in temps will occur late in the week with highs on Saturday within a couple degrees of seasonal levels. .Marine... Onshore winds may briefly reach cautionary levels today ahead of a cold front. Winds will shift to the northwest and then north behind the front and increase to advisory levels late tonight into Monday morning. Winds will drop below headline criteria by Monday afternoon. An arctic front will sweep across the waters on Wednesday with winds surging well above small craft advisory thresholds with frequent gale-force gusts possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds will drop below headline criteria Thursday night. .Fire Weather... A drier air mass will arrive on Monday in the wake of a cold front. Minimum relative humidities are expected to remain above Red Flag criteria for the next few days. .Hydrology... All area rivers are now below flood stage. Rainfall through the weekend will generally be 0.5 to 1 inch. Higher amounts are possible locally. No significant river flooding is expected with this next batch of rain. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 73 45 60 35 69 / 90 30 0 0 10 Panama City 70 45 59 43 67 / 90 10 0 0 10 Dothan 69 39 55 35 64 / 80 10 0 0 0 Albany 71 40 58 34 66 / 90 20 0 0 0 Valdosta 73 45 60 38 67 / 80 40 0 0 10 Cross City 75 51 65 41 71 / 70 60 0 0 10 Apalachicola 71 47 60 42 67 / 90 30 0 0 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
Posted on: Sun, 04 Jan 2015 15:35:39 +0000
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