Latest forecast discussion from NWS State College now mentions the possibility of an isolated tornado tomorrow. SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A POTENTIALLY BUSY DAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND TAKES AIM AT THE LOCAL AREA. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED REGION JUST TO OUR SW /INCLUDING PORTIONS OF OH-KY-WV/ WITH A MODERATE RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY. WE COULD BE VULNERABLE LOCALLY INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION AND THE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY/SHEAR THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AVAILABLE. WHERE THE OHIO VALLEY DEVELOPMENTS TAKE PLACE TONIGHT WILL HAVE MUCH TO SAY ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH INTO CENTRAL PA THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MANAGE TO MOVE. BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ROBUST ENOUGH THAT WE MAY INITIALLY SEE ONE WAVE OF STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH A SECOND WAVE DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SOUTHERN STORMS LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/EVEN AN ISO TORNADO...WITH NORTHERN STORMS MAINLY WIND PRODUCERS. FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING SHOULD STILL BE QUITE BUSY WITH ONGOING STORMS...WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 00:48:16 +0000
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