Latest update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has dropped the intensity of Typhoon Hagupit just below Super Typhoon Status (Sustained winds at 230kph with gusts of 280kph near the eyewall) THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE THREAT OF THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM! It is still equivalent to a strong CAT 4 hurricane in the Atlantic and has just undergone a rapid eyewall replacement (which is a good indicator of the power of this typhoon). General fluctuations in intensity are normal with this strength typhoon. LANDFALL INFORMATION (all times local): - Northern/Eastern Samar Island late Saturday evening/early Sunday morning (a 50-75km northward or southward shift is still possible) IMPORTANT THREATS TO CONSIDER: 1) Storm surge of 2-4 meters, especially along and just north of the center of the storm. Surge is a very localized factor that is impacted by the shape of the coastline and the underwater topography. 2) Winds in excess of 200kph along the center of the track and 120kph extending over 100km/65miles from the center 3) Flash Flooding from heavy rainfalls over 300mm (12inches) due to the slow movement of the storm. Heavy rainfall and flooding could occur across large portions of the Central and Northern Philippines having a much wider impact than the winds and surge which are most devastating in the core of the storm. SUPPORTING GRAPHIC INFORMATION: 1) Latest MODIS Visible Satellite image taken from NASAS Terra satellite 2) Possible landfall scenarios (with timing differences as per various computer models) 3) Latest PAGASA Storm Warnings issued 4) Current location/intensity of typhoon 5) Projected cone of uncertainty from JWTC 6) Highlighted threats of storm
Posted on: Fri, 05 Dec 2014 05:04:57 +0000
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