Learning tip: As readers of my books or learning tips will know, I always recommend ambitious chess players to study the history of the game – the old masters and the defining games and events in chess history. Chess is a knowledge game (among other things) and we are fortunate to have easy access to lessons from the past. With the World Championship match Anand-Carlsen just a few weeks away, it is interesting to consider what chess history may reveal about such a match-up: a young, first-time challenger vs. an older, experienced World Champion. This type of match-up has occurred rather frequently before, and five scenarios have unfolded. A) The challenger wins a convincing victory (3+ or more). This has happened frequently, e.g. in Fischer-Spassky 1972; Tal-Botvinnik 1960; Petrosian-Botvinnik 1963; Lasker-Steinitz 1894; and Capablanca-Lasker 1921. B) The challenger wins a close match (+1 or 2). This has happened relatively rarely; the most striking example being Kasparov-Kramnik 2000. Another example is Euwe-Alekhine 1935. C) The defending Champion wins a convincing victory. This has happened rather frequently, e.g. Kasparov-Anand 1995 and Kasparov-Short 1993. This was also the outcome of a number of the early matches for the World Championship going back more than 80-100 years. The first Karpov-Kasparov match in 1984-1985 may perhaps also tentatively be counted in this category, if that match – as Anand-Carlsen will be – had been played with a limited number of games (best of X games). D) The Champion wins a close match. This has actually happened relatively rarely, but an example is Petrosian-Spassky 1966. Anand-Topalov 2010 was similar, but none of the players were first time contenders. We could also include Karpov-Korchnoi 1978, but in that match the challenger was the older one! E) The match is tied. This has been the outcome surprisingly often in World Championship history, e.g. Botvinnik-Bronstein 1951; Botvinnik-Smyslov 1954; Lasker-Schlechter 1910; and Kramnik-Leko 2004. The matches Kramnik-Topalov 2006 and Anand-Gelfand 2012 may also be included in this category as the classical games were tied and the tie broken through rapid games. So what does this mean in terms of predicting the outcome of the upcoming Anand-Carlsen match? Probably not too much, but a few interesting comparisons can be made. Few will probably dispute that Magnus Carlsen has been the best player in the world during the past 3-4 years. The young Norwegian is by far the highest rated player in the world and has won six of his last nine super tournaments while finishing just half a point off the lead in the other three. The World Champion’s tournament performances have been less impressive in recent years. This could suggest that the historically speaking quite frequent scenario A) may be more likely than scenario C), although that too has happened quite often in chess history. But World Championship matches are different from tournaments and Anand is a very experienced match player. In this respect it is interesting to note that historically relatively few matches with this kind of match-up have been close victories for either side. With only 12 games to play the match may very well stay close throughout, and a tied match (scenario E) after the classical games may in fact be quite likely. Given the (too) low number of games, both players may be cautious in the second half of the match if the score remains tied at that point. Contrary to Topalov in 2010, who went all-in and lost in the final game of the match with Anand to avoid a rapid playoff (having lost such a playoff vs. Kramnik in 2006 and knowing Anand’s reputation as a rapid specialist), Carlsen will probably not gamble to avoid a rapid playoff. I would see such a playoff as a toss-up. No matter which scenario will unfold, this match will no doubt add another great chapter to the history of chess!
Posted on: Sun, 22 Sep 2013 01:44:29 +0000
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