Let me start out by saying this is meant to be a short update to summarize on the latest weather model data from this morning. The National Weather Service offices across Texas will release their individual forecast packages later this afternoon. After that I’ll make another post to highlight their latest thoughts. With that said lets highlight a few things. * Potential remains evident for light freezing rain on New Years Eve across parts of Texas. * One caveat in the forecast is that temperatures are expected to slowly rise on New Years Eve/New Years Eve Night as warm air advection begins to warm the atmosphere. How slow or quickly that occurs will determine how much freezing rain accumulates into ice before temperatures rise above freezing. * Data continues to suggest that this will NOT be a crippling or debilitating ice storm like the one that struck in December 2013. * While a major ice storm is not anticipated it only takes a glazing of ice (0.01″) to make surfaces slippery and cause travel headaches. 2014-12-29_13-05-53 This graphic highlights the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center and shows the probability of there being at least 0.01″ of freezing rain (ice) accumulation on New Years Eve. While that doesn’t sound like much remember it only takes a glazing of ice on surfaces to create all sorts of problems. Compared to earlier today confidence has increased that portions of the Hill Country and the western half of North Texas (including the D/FW Metroplex) will likely see at least light freezing rain on New Years Eve. Confidence in specific impacts or accumulations remains low becuase weather models can’t seem to get a grip on what they think will occur. That isn’t surprising considering it happens most of the time when forecasting winter weather in Texas. There are two camps right now in weather model data. The first camp says precipitation will be light and temperatures will slowly rise above freezing across North Texas and the Hill Country by late evening on New Years Eve. The result would be light freezing rain during the afternoon hours with everything changing over to pure rain as temperatures rise above freezing. The other camp has heavier precipitation and would result in a more significant winter weather event with more impacts from ice (still not anything near the level of Dec. 2013). That’s why its prudent to check back for new forecast information later on since the forecast itself will likely change based on what new weather model data suggests. I’ll leave you with the latest information from your local National Weather Service office. Once again I’ll have a more detailed update and summary on the latest forecast later this afternoon. NWS Fort Worth MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL- NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS- LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 1217 PM CST MON DEC 29 2014 …A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON… ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. INITIALLY THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER…MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE COLD SURFACE AIR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN…FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY…BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS GENERALLY INCLUDES AN AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO WACO TO TEMPLE. IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER…EVEN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE CAN RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY. NWS San Antonio LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LLANO…BURNET…GEORGETOWN…DEL RIO… ROCKSPRINGS…LEAKEY…KERRVILLE…BANDERA…FREDERICKSBURG… BOERNE…BLANCO…SAN MARCOS…AUSTIN…BASTROP…GIDDINGS… BRACKETTVILLE…UVALDE…HONDO…SAN ANTONIO…NEW BRAUNFELS… SEGUIN…LOCKHART…LA GRANGE…EAGLE PASS…CRYSTAL CITY… PEARSALL…PLEASANTON…FLORESVILLE…KARNES CITY…GONZALES… CUERO…HALLETTSVILLE…CARRIZO SPRINGS 504 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014 …ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY… …POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS… AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY…ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO BLANCO TO BURNET LINE…EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COLD CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN…AND LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT INTO NEW YEARS DAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIME ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN LINE…WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE RESULTING IN TRAVEL IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG INTERSTATE 35 FROM SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN. HOWEVER…THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT INTO NEW YEARS DAY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE COMING DAYS…AS COOLER FORECAST TRENDS COULD BRING THE FREEZING RAIN LINE NEAR THE AREA. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEW YEARS DAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS…WITH NO FREEZING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEW YEARS DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALSO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN CHANCES WILL END SATURDAY MORNING. NWS San Angelo FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROTAN…ROBY…SWEETWATER… STERLING CITY…ROBERT LEE…BRONTE…BALLINGER…WINTERS… MERTZON…SAN ANGELO…EDEN…OZONA…ELDORADO…SONORA… HASKELL…THROCKMORTON…WOODSON…STAMFORD…ANSON…HAMLIN… ALBANY…ABILENE…CLYDE…BAIRD…CROSS PLAINS…COLEMAN… BROWNWOOD…BRADY…SAN SABA…MENARD…JUNCTION…MASON 459 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014 …MORE WINTRY WEATHER FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEK… WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW… 1. AFTER WARMER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON…ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS…WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. 2. PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE…FREEZING DRIZZLE…AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE SMALL…IT ONLY TAKES A GLAZE OF ICE ON ROADWAYS TO CREATE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. 3. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD…HEAVER… PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL AS A COLD RAIN. THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH. IF TEMPERATURES END UP A LITTLE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED… THAN MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY…THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO WATCH THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. NWS Lubbock PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FRIONA…BOVINA…DIMMITT…HART… TULIA…SILVERTON…QUITAQUE…MEMPHIS…TURKEY…CHILDRESS… MULESHOE…LITTLEFIELD…OLTON…PLAINVIEW…FLOYDADA…LOCKNEY… MATADOR…ROARING SPRINGS…PADUCAH…MORTON…LEVELLAND… LUBBOCK…SLATON…WOLFFORTH…CROSBYTON…RALLS…DICKENS… SPUR…GUTHRIE…PLAINS…DENVER CITY…BROWNFIELD…TAHOKA… ODONNELL…POST…JAYTON…ASPERMONT 423 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014 …WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS THIS WEEK… THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA…INCLUDING THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE…WILL RETURN TO FREEZING WEATHER THIS WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BOTH DAYS. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BY THEN…BUT MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS EARLY IN THE NEW YEAR. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL INTERESTS DURING THIS HOLIDAY WEEK SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO FORECASTS AND CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE PREPARED TO ADJUST YOUR TRAVEL PLANS TO AVOID TRAVEL DURING TIMES OF HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER. For Northwest Texas and Oklahoma …WINTER STORM OUTLOOK… SEVERAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. FIRST OF ALL…ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL NEAR AND BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION…SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW AREAS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE AN INCH OF SNOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY…WHEN WIDESPREAD SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE. WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN…TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DURING THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT…THE FORECAST CALLS FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACTS ON POWER LINES AND VEGETATION. LASTLY…AS THE STORM SYSTEM LEAVES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. SINCE THIS IS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM AND FORECAST DATA WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES…WE STRONGLY URGE YOU TO STAY WEATHER AWARE BY MONITORING LATER FORECASTS.
Posted on: Mon, 29 Dec 2014 20:07:38 +0000
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