Letter To My Scottish Friends on the case for independence: Scotland is a great country with great potentials, wonderful people and great resources , however in campaigning for or against independence , many factors are bound to be considered . This piece hopes to state some of the considerations for voters to make a better and more informed decision . The campaigners for independence are more overwhelmed with political independence, greater resource control and wealth for all. However , Economists and political thinkers like us like to think through things differently and here are 10 reasons which my friends have to consider before they vote for or against independence : 1) Global presence and influence.It is obvious that an independent Scotland would loose global presence and global entitlements as opposed to marriage with United Kingdom 2) Continued membership of the EU ; This position has not been dully clarified and important for Scotland 3) Economic gamble,..This is really important especially in times of recession and rising unemployment. consider the case of Republic of Ireland during the recession periods 4) Sovereign debt. by virtue of marriage to UK , an independent Scotland will still inherent some sovereign debt it would need to deal with. 5)Global Voice and influence : Scotland will have a smaller voice and influence on the world stage if independent. 6) Scotlands oil resources deeply complicate Scotlands fiscal picture according to John Mclaren and Jo Armstrong of Glasgow Universitys Centre for Public Policy for Regions.Scotlands wealth tends to be overstated because although the economy benefits from North Sea oil production, a significant proportion of its domestic economy – particularly in oil, drinks, energy, and financial services – is owned by overseas stakeholders.As a result, GDP is not as effective in terms of measuring economic performance compared with other countries. The key question is how much of the earnings from what is produced in Scotland, stays in Scotland. Based on current forecasts, North Sea tax revenues would not be enough to offset the loss of monies currently transferred from the rest of the UK, leasing to a net loss of funding at time under independence.As a result, the Scottish governments proposed oil fund, where tax revenues would be set aside for future generations rather than used for day-to-day spending, would not only be unaffordable, but additional spending cuts would also be required.The picture is further complicated by the volatility of oil prices. The authors suggest that the only way to avoid a net loss of funding on independence would be if tax revenues on North Sea oil came in well above current expectations, probably as a result of above inflation rises in oil prices. 7) Currency issues , an independent Scotland will have to realistically deal with choice of currency. Economists argue that there are three main currency options for an independent Scotland – keeping the pound, joining the euro, or having its own currency. According to NIESRs Angus Armstrong and Monique Ebell; none of the three options are ideal when all the various factors are taken into account. :Since commitment to a currency union by an independent country can only be conditional, an independent Scotland might find it optimal to abandon the currency union in the future if the financial stability advantages to having its own currency begin to outweigh any disadvantages due to trade and transactions costs, they write. 8) Tax and Cuts: More spending cuts and tax rises would be needed to ensure fiscal sustainability in an independent Scotland. That is the stark message from Rowena Crawford and Gemma Tetlow of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. 9 ) State Pension : The costs of the state pension would be lower in Scotland because the country has a lower life expectancy than the rest of the UK. In theory then this would lower the cost of government contributions, because people would draw pensions for a shorter period, or delay the increase in the state retirement age in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK. 10) Demography : Scotland is in a worse demographic position than the rest of the UK, with a more rapidly ageing population.This is very important for economics of scale , remember a countrys GDP is measured by the number of people and how productive they are . Question: The question remains. is there a way that Scotland can control its resources , decide its political future and create wealth for all. Answer Yes, and its called confederation.This is defined as a loose association of independent nations, and I would have hoped Scottish Politicians would have bargained for this to sustain interest for all. this has been evident in notable countries that practise it like EU, Switzerland. Bosnia and Herzegovina to mention but a few . In this way, everyones problems and concerns would have been resolved and more importantly , Scotland would still retain their right of secession. Dear friends the future of Scotland is in your hands , vote wisely !! Vote without sentiments and emotions but with reality, interest and strong conviction Which ever way you choose to go,I will continue to love and support Scotland . Uzoma E
Posted on: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 05:34:50 +0000
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