Looking to the future, post cancelation of Indo-Pak Secretery level talks, PM Modi’s decision creates new diplomatic facts for Islamabad to reckon with. By insisting that the Simla Agreement did not envisage any third party, New Delhi has driven a technical wedge between Islamabad and the separatists. Backing separatists is now a clear red line for New Delhi while abandoning them makes Sharif look bad in Pakistan. Islamabad now has the choice of openly backing separatists as its domestic constituents want it to or it may want to ramp up militant violence to force India to the negotiating table — both of which easily play into the BJP’s hands. PM Modi’s move also potentially alters the future of separatist politics. Separatists may try to revive protests soon to demonstrate their clout in the Valley as the NDA has undercut their claim to be the third player on the issue. But Pakistan may not stand by them over time in order to resume negotiations with India. If that happens, PM Modi’s decision will have, to an extent, succeeded in downsizing separatist resistance from being a factor in bilateral relations to becoming a subset in Indian politics, which Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and others may have to reconcile to. J&K heads to assembly polls soon and the BJP stands to gain from any over-reaction to last week’s decision. Hostile rhetoric from Hafiz Saeed, firing across the Line of Control, more incidents of militant violence and separatist calls for boycott will all aid the BJP’s ambition to secure a majority in the assembly.
Posted on: Wed, 27 Aug 2014 12:02:33 +0000
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