Lots of weather extremes to deal with across Texas and the nation over the next ten days..... 1) The majestic storm now moving east-southeast through the Gulf of Alaska will dig into Texas by Saturday afternoon, perhaps as far south as San Antonio by the afternoon of November 22. This feature appears to be set to take a path from S TX to S IL, then on into Lower MI toward the QC Laurentian Shield. Of interest here is the systems ability to tap the equatorial moisture axis below Mexico and Central America, and its predicted central pressure of 972 MB when it reaches Lake Huron on Monday morning. The disturbance is going to generate one hell of a windstorm in the Great Lakes and Midwest. 2) Severe thunderstorms will kick off Friday afternoon and evening over the Big Country of Texas, then slowly expand in coverage and intensity through the Interstate 35 and 45 corridors on Saturday and Saturday night. Interestingly, the NAM and GGEM series seem to be developing an MCS that batters the Houston TX metro and then goes on to wreak havoc on the Golden Triangle cities and the Interstate 10 cities of Louisiana. We have two threats emerging: flooding rainfall and hail/lightning displays. Some of the thunder will reach well into OK and AR. 3) As the surface low deepens and moves northeastward, the cold air mass will modify radically in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Appalachia, with heavy rain and thunderstorms moving over a melting snowpack. I really feel sorry for parts of NW PA and W NY. To go from 7 feet of snow to 2 feet of water in the streets will not be enjoyable. 4) The cold air mass that follows the Saturday to Monday storm will dig down into Texas and the Deep South for a couple of days, then lift out ahead of the next storm in the sequence, now well east of Japan with a moisture fetch out of Indonesia. 5) I fully believe the ECMWF model suite with its blocking pattern into Alaska, a +PNA/-EPO hybrid that teleconnects well with a full-latitude trough and Arctic intrusion which reaches Mexico and Central America. Will there be a storm with this powerful cold shot. Yes, and although the track forecast this far out is uncertain, there is a credible notion that a Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard trajectory may be realized. With monstrous cold unheard of for Thanksgiving weekend. Sleep well tonight.
Posted on: Fri, 21 Nov 2014 01:32:23 +0000
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