M8 KAIKOURA HARNESS BEST BET- Kotare Mahal, Race 6 VALUE BET- Stig, Race 7 Race 1- You cant really look past Purdons trotter here, Bonechip, looks well placed in a weak non winners trot field, placed fresh up before. Once again though i personally hate taking short price trotting favourites as they just have a tendency to gallop. Although it is very hard to see him beaten from the ace today Race 2- Race fitness here will be the key to winning this race, and at the horse towards the bottom of the book here has that aspect. Major Talk has had three runs back this campaign and they have all been very promising, up against loose favourites that are fresh up or on debut the race fitness advantage is very helpful and just on that point i have put him in to win Race 3- Doctor Bones looks a great chance in this race, his fresh up effort was encouraging and he should strip fitter for this run plus a little bit of natural improvement will see this horse tough to beat Race 4- I like Better Than Money here, the last time these two met they finished first and second with Simon Sivad winning but if you look at the trips they both got, Better Than Moneys run had more merit and just on that fact i have put him in to roll the favourite. Race 5- I like the favourite here, the horse on debut. This is a very weak field and with the workout and trial form that Clarisa brings into this race, should make the horse hard to beat. From the prominent draw should be able to get handy and figure in the finish Race 6- Kotare Mahal looks the horse everyone has to beat here, has been in amazing form recently including a massive run for 2nd in behind a smart type at Addington, one win of the standing start and only a 10m handicap just suggests that she should be very hard to roll once in front. Race 7- The first feature of the day, i have gone with some value. Stig. He never got into the race over the mile at Ashburton last week and this week over a longer distance if he can make his way to the front and dictate the pace then he should prove hard to roll in the home straight take EW at odds $16.00 and $3.00. Race 8- In the feature of the day i have gone with the Aussie import, Suave Stuey Lombo. His run in the Ashburton Flying Stakes was massive, he was very slow away from the start gave them an 8 length head-start, looped them, sat parked and massive to battle away to finish within 4 lengths of the winner Terror To Love who is not here today, as long as he steps a little faster, with fitness and natural improvement he should be a good chance in the feature today. Race 9- Satori again looks a good chance today from the prominent draw and after last starts convincing win, there is no reason why she cant go on from here and win another. Race 10- This is the toughest race of the day with some many class horses going around, very tough to tip but if i was going to sway towards someone it would be Purdons runner All Star Man, his run fresh up at Ashburton was massive, sat parked pretty much the whole way and managed to finish 2nd in behind Franco Nelsen. Will strip fitter, get a nicer trip, and should be figuring in the finish. Race 11- I cant split the two favourites here, Alleluia from the wide draw and Madiba Magic. Alleluia looks the obvious pick here but after the disappointing run last start and from the wide draw may be working hard again, Madiba Magic may get a nice trip from the second row start and have more of a finish, unable to split the two so take the quinella.
Posted on: Sun, 03 Nov 2013 22:12:26 +0000