MADORE REPORT DEBUNKED Regional Labor Economist Scott Bailey does maintain a spreadsheet that segregates unincorporated Clark County and each citys employment. This snapshot is from March 2013, showing the average annual employment. Vancouver has more than twice the number of jobs as unincorporated Clark County and more than half of all the jobs in the county. Heres the two big things that are wrong with Madores report and the fee waiver program, followed by a couple smaller things. Clark County commercial permits for Jul 2012 - Jun 2013 were 301. Clark County commercial permits for Jul 2013 - Jun 2014 were 332. That was an increase of only 2.5 per month. If Madores fee waiver was responsible for ALL the increase in the first full year of his program, it would still be ONLY 31 permits. Fee waivers were given to some 150 projects, but only 31 represent an increase from the year before. The county audit is clearly correct when it insists that most of the projects that got fee waivers would have happened regardless. The second critical error: Madores report shows about $8.2-million waived through Sept 2014. Then he calculates about $7.8-million will be recovered by the county in sales tax, construction sales tax, and property tax over 5 years. Thats just over $1.5-millon per year. So, you give away $8-million the first year and recover $1.5. The next year, you give another $8-mil and recover $3. Year 3, give $8-mil, recover $4.5. Year 4, $8 and $6. Year 5, $8 and $7.5. In five years, the county has given away $40-million dollars and recovered $22.5 (maybe; if all the blue sky projections come into fruition, but Padden Parkway Business Center wont be built out and then leased out for years and years, so its projected sales wont happen until some distant future). Not only is this program going to be a deficit for the county for years and years, but its assuming all the tax from all these new businesses, both property and sales is committed to backfilling this program and not available for the countys other needs. Meanwhile, the statistics above indicate 90% or more of the businesses would be built regardless, but the county is tens of millions in the hole. In his report, Madore keeps referring to new permanent full-time jobs, which is wrong on several counts: * not all the jobs are new; some will likely be transfers from other locations * there is nothing on the reports he uses that indicates all jobs are permanent; some are likely seasonal, particularly in retail * likewise, nothing indicates they are all full time, or full-time equivalents; some jobs in coffee kiosks and food establishments are likely to be part-time. But the biggest flaw: Madore counts these speculative jobs as if they are all employed this year, whereas the 396 forecast for Padden Parkway Business Center will likely take 5-15 years to appear in its fullness, if it ever does. Madore keeps claiming that Clark County is the fastest growing community on the West Coast. Thats hardly true, and its growth is way behind the fastest growing communities in the country: The state’s 10 largest counties accounted for 84.5 percent of total employment in the state. King County’s 3.7 percent annual job growth was the state’s fastest, followed by a 3.5 percent rise in Clark County April 30, 2014 seattletimes/html/businesstechnology/2023499138_kingcountyjobandwagegrowthxml.html On September 18, 2014, Bureau of Labor Statistics released its First Quarter, 2014 COUNTY EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES report These were the 10 fastest growing large counties, growing from 1.3% more to more than twice Clark Countys 3.5% annual growth for Mar, 2014 Weld, Colo. 7.5 York, S.C. 6.4 Lee, Fla. 6.3 Sarasota, Fla. 5.8 Wyandotte, Kan. 5.5 Midland, Texas 5.4 Montgomery, Texas 5.2 Collier, Fla. 4.9 Sonoma, Calif. 4.8 Fort Bend, Texas 4.8 These West Coast communities were all growing faster than Clark: Riverside, CA............................... 4.0 San Francisco, CA....................... 3.9 San Mateo, CA............................. 4.6 Santa Clara, CA........................... 4.0 Sonoma, CA................................. 4.8 Clark, WA..................................... 3.8 bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewqtr.pdf Not only is Clark County NOT the fastest growing community on the West Coast, but dozens of counties are growing as fast or faster without blanket, one-size-fits-all, give-the-dough-to-everyone fee waivers.
Posted on: Wed, 26 Nov 2014 20:18:59 +0000
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