MALAGA WEATHER UPDATE Friday 4th July 2014: These fires are coming thick and fast now so first things first.....keep your eyes peeled and continue that great reporting.......to the weather we zoom.....not that theres much to say other than sun, sun and probably more sun!!!......Yes, those temperatures will bounce back towards the hot side and with it those regional winds subdue as the day proceeds.......We may still see some fluffy bits floating on by but other than looking like the odd shark or even a Cheverolet Corvette they will pose you no harm......personally my shrink cant see them.....strange that!!!......Anyway, we may see very localised winds kicked off by that phenomenon that is pressure differential (scour back through previous edjumacation material for that one)!!!......The weekend is looking great and at this time next week is looking good too although cloud may develop later in the week!!!.......Early heads up though on a possible change in our weather fortunes for the following weekend. Looking at the medium range picture we could be in for some rain but early days yet so will watch and advise!!!.......So, with you all peering with one eye out the window for fire I just want to revisit a topic that I touched on not long ago......El Niño!!!......Why, well, the reason I mentioned it previously was because the question was asked in another group. And the reason I am revisiting it is because I have managed to track down credible maps on the subject from, of all places, the UKs Met Office. You see, many people around the world blame El Niño for a whole host of weather and other related issues and therefore the web is crammed with all sorts of El Niño related charts that have no substance to them. There are only certain areas of the world where it is proven that El Niño actually does change the weather pattern and with these graphics its clear!!!........At this time the chance of an El Niño event occurring is 70% during this summer and rises to 80% during this coming autumn/winter. As per a previous post on this subject recently, the weather technical term these days is an ENSO Event (El Nińo Southern Oscillation). ENSO events have widespread effects on seasonal weather and climate through their influence on large scale circulation patterns. The maps provided in the comments below summarise the main impacts on seasonal precipitation and near-surface temperature over land areas. For each region marked, the colour indicates the tendency and the text indicates the seasonality of the impact. The maps are based on analyses of historical datasets extending over several decades and on information in reviewed publications. The regions selected on the maps are areas where a substantial impact occurs so, again as stated on the previous posting, we watch carefully for old ENSO to appear because whenever it kicks off we in the Iberian Peninsular are affected.....as per those maps!!!.......Moving back to the current weather issues for the Iberian Peninsular, the main graphic is yesterdays lightening strikes from AEMET just for everyones info. those storms did enter into Andalucia a bit further south than they were supposed to but still remained well away from little old us!!!.....how lucky are we in the south at this time!!!......Jim Fraser for the Local Fire & Weather Watch Network :)
Posted on: Fri, 04 Jul 2014 06:03:41 +0000
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