MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MUCH OF MO...FAR SERN NEB AND SRN IA...SRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 041738Z - 042345Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN KS AND MO...AND CONTINUE EXPANDING NWD/EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/SRN IA AND CNTRL/SRN IL. RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HR ARE EXPECTED...BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN MORE CONCENTRATED BANDS. DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALLING FROM CNTRL KS INTO SRN IL. HEAVIER RATES ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND FROM NEAR ICT TO OJC /AS OF 1730Z/. ASSOCIATED CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WAS MOVING INTO SRN KS AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE/SLIGHT NWD SHIFT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS. WITH QUASI-CLOSED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AT LEAST WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER /AS OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP DATA/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN BANDED STRUCTURES ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE /I.E. ACROSS NERN KS...NRN MO INTO FAR SERN NEB AND SRN IA/. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR REGION...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN MO AND SRN/CNTRL IL. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER BENEATH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...AS NOTED IN MORNING SOUNDINGS.
Posted on: Tue, 04 Feb 2014 17:57:21 +0000
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