MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN LA / A PORTION OF FAR SWRN AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160642Z - 160845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER S-CNTRL LA AND MOVING NEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SLOWLY ADVANCING MARITIME WARM FRONT FROM 25 ENE LFK DRAPED ESEWD TO 5 MI S BTR THROUGH LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. S OF THE BOUNDARY...MID 60S DEWPOINTS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLOW DESTABILIZATION. RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS IMPLY A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFYING STORMS FROM VERMILLION PARISH NEWD TO WEST FELICIANA PARISH. IT IS WITHIN THE SRN PART OF THIS BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WHERE RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED ALONG WITH ECHO TOPS INCREASING FROM 20 KFT TO 30 KFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE NEAR THE ARKLATEX AT 0630Z WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACCENTUATED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ TO 50 KT WILL TEND TO AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE A SLOW ALBEIT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF A SEVERAL STORMS IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT YIELDING A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
Posted on: Sun, 16 Mar 2014 07:07:49 +0000
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