MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS...W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 070442Z - 070645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR E CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL FOR THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDS THE NWD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR AND A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY. DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR NATCHEZ MS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN WILL MOVING NNEWD. THE WARM SECTOR HAS ALSO SPREAD A FEW COUNTIES INLAND ACROSS SRN MS/AL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FARTHER N...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS REINFORCED THE COOL AIR MASS AND GENERATED SOME SLOW SWD-SEWD MOTION OF AN EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF A JAN-MEI LINE TO NEAR BHM AS OF 0430Z. THE WIDESPREAD/ONGOING NATURE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT A NWD RETREAT OF THE RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS IS IN QUESTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S-SW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR /WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 65/. HOWEVER...PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NW AL/NE MS COULD EVENTUALLY HELP DRAW THE RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS NWD...AS THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NWD TOWARD E CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL AL. IF/WHEN IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL REACH N OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF E CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL AL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 04/07/2014
Posted on: Mon, 07 Apr 2014 04:50:21 +0000
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