MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0847 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...IL...IND...LOWER MI...NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300... VALID 130147Z - 130315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WRN AND CNTRL PART OF WW 300...WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW OVER NRN IL WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN IND INTO NW OH. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CONSOLIDATE THE STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NE IL AND NRN IND...INTO A BOWING LINEAR MCS. THE MCS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND DAMAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHIFTING EWD INTO NW OH LATER THIS EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/13/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
Posted on: Thu, 13 Jun 2013 01:50:28 +0000
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