MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 292140Z - 292315Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL WINDOW OF THE RISK IS SMALL...AND A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN A BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND ACROSS WRN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND SOME TREES DOWN IN THE PAST HOUR IN OXFORD AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THE STORMS APPEARED TO FORM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING NNEWD OVER MAINE NOW. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS...AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE NARROW WARM SECTOR BY ABOUT 23Z AND THEN ENCOUNTER A MUCH COOLER/MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN MAINE...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ERN EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT. THUS...THE SEVERE STORM RISK APPEARS TO BE TOO CONFINED IN TIME/SPACE TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..THOMPSON.. 06/29/2013 ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 44566941 43936997 43647044 43647074 43967090 44367035 44826981 45356971 45916943 46496904 46786875 46866835 46816815 46176820 45386885 44996906 44566941
Posted on: Sat, 29 Jun 2013 22:43:17 +0000
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