MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND E CENTRAL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 292227Z - 300000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE JUST E OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...BUT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND MAGNITUDE OF THE RISK APPEAR TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW. DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IMMEDIATELY NE-SE OF DENVER...WHICH RESULTED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. NEW STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG AND E OF THIS WEAK OUTFLOW...AS WELL AS ALONG A SEPARATE NNW-SSE ORIENTED FRONTAL SEGMENT...IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS /MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J PER KG AND NWLY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT/. THESE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE STORMS MAY END UP BEING TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ..THOMPSON.. 06/29/2013 ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40250446 40540469 40730465 40430423 39930378 39230325 38820290 38290272 38130299 38140348 38250403 38540448 38940450 39200432 39490420 39890426 40250446
Posted on: Sat, 29 Jun 2013 22:41:04 +0000
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