MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...NW OH AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 101553Z - 101700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN IND...NW OH AND SRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NW IND AND NRN IL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S F...STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG FROM DETROIT SWD TO NEAR CINCINNATI. IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX IS ANALYZED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ESTIMATED IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING THAT SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN SUPERCELLS WILL BE FAVORED WITH A LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. IF CELLS CONGEAL INTO A LINE..THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT. ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/10/2013
Posted on: Wed, 10 Jul 2013 16:46:03 +0000
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