METEOROPOULOS UPDATE: Sunday, 1/25/15 @ 10:42PM *** BLIZZARD SET TO HIT ENTIRE NYC METRO AREA *** *** SNOW TO START LIGHTLY ON MONDAY MORNING *** *** HEAVY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY *** *** WHY THE WEATHER CHANNEL LOW SNOW TOTALS? *** *** MESOSCALE BANDS DETERMINE WHO GETS WHAT *** ACCUMULATIONS: NYC.................................18-24 Long Island......................24-30 Northeastern NJ..............18-24 Northwestern NJ..............12-18 Central NJ........................14-20 Southeastern CT..............24-30 Southwestern CT..............20-26 Lower Hudson Valley........20-26 Poconos, PA.....................10-15 BLIZZARD: Computer models are mostly onboard for an EPIC BLIZZARD for pretty much the entire NYC Metro area. Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the entire NYC Metro area. Expect wind gusts anywhere from 40-60MPH and coastal beach erosion. Power outages will be VERY common with this storm. IF the storm jogs a bit east, areas to the west like NJ and PA get less. NYC and points east will get hammered either way. Just may be a bit less. Hard to say. But as of now, this looks like it will be a historic blizzard for all of us! START TIMES: Snow will begin lightly on Monday morning and continue throughout the day with intermittent light snow. It may accumulate an inch or two, but nothing major. Once the coastal low gets going, it will strengthen RAPIDLY off the Atlantic, then SLOWLY come up the coast and then start to dump VERY HEAVY SNOW on all of us around the early evening on Monday. The heavy snow and strong winds will continue on Monday night and all day on Tuesday. It will begin to wind down from west to east on Tuesday night with light snow showers into Wednesday morning. THE WEATHER CHANNEL?: Everyone is asking me why the Weather Channel has such low snow totals for NYC? They are forecasting 12-18 while the National Weather Service is forecasting 24-36 of snow? WHY? Because the Weather Channel uses the GFS computer model (American version) more heavily into their forecasts than any other model. They just have a bias for it since it is an Amercican model. And the GFS happens to be one of the most eastern tracks, giving NYC less snow than say what the EURO is showing with its more western track that favors more snow for NYC. That, and the fact that the Weather Channel has ALWAYS been conservative with their snow totals so they dont look bad if they over forecast snow totals. They are just covering their asses basically. They see it as its better to under forecast than overreacts. MESOSCALE BANDS: Wherever these intense bands setup up will determine who gets the most snow after what is already expected. I am saying 18-24 for NYC, but if they fall under an intense band, then the numbers go up. The only time to know this is when the storm is actually happening. So we have to wait and see! These bands of 2-4 per hour can DRAMATICALLY increase totals for anyone! Back in 2006, NYC saw 12 of snow in 4 hours to break the all-time record for snow in one storm, so you can see how huge these mesoscale bands are! NOTES: a) Please note, the posts I made all day with the NWS snow totals that exceeded 2 feet of snow are NOT MY FORECAST! I am just sharing this information since The National Weather Service is obviously a very credible weather source. Who am I to question them? My predictions are above based on what I feel will happen based on my perception of this storm after all my research and study of the storm and other meteorologists discussions via forums, websites, computer models, etc. So please differentiate what my forecasts are - and what other forecasts are that I am just posting for you to see from other sources. b) I am hard at work trying to see if this jog east will occur that may lower snow totals for NJ and PA and possibly a bit for the rest of us, but points east will get buried regardless. This isnt easy but it is somehow fun for me! Thanks for your continued support and all the wonderful and nice things many of you have said today and in the past It means a lot to me. Keeps me going! Stay safe and keep you posted! Pete Lymberopoulos (aka: The Snowman)
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 03:46:01 +0000
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