MIDNIGHT MODEL CHECK: SATURDAY STORM Well our computer models all agree there will be a low pressure racing up the coast Saturday. But thats about all they agree upon. Temperatures, rain vs. snow, light vs. heavy...all variables yet to be resolved...and significant differences remain with each computer model. Rather than describing the many differences, heres where I stand on my thoughts regarding the weekend storm: SETUP: Coastal low will track pretty quickly up the East Coast on Saturday, strengthening as it does. But how quickly it intensifies and just where it tracks are unknowns. It is a fast mover, as theres no blocking over the North Atlantic to slow this down and make it a major or slow moving storm for us. But this storm will certainly be stronger and more impactful than Wednesdays clipper. TIMING: The next 2 days are dry, with clouds arriving late Friday and thickening Friday night. Snow may develop later Friday night, but should promptly change to rain for most of far South Jersey by Saturday morning. Steadiest precip falls Saturday as mainly rain, especially at the coast, with the rain/snow line likely pushing inland towards the NJ Turnpike. We likely change back over to snow towards Saturday evening before the storm ends early Saturday night. But how quickly that changeover occurs also is an unknown. BRIEF SNOW TO A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN....THEN BACK TO SNOW: Thats what I think will happen here in South Jersey, with our best chance of accumulating snow on the back side of this storm. With no blocking to our northeast and no cold air locked in place, this isnt a favorable setup for an all snow or even mostly snow event for far South Jersey. The higher snow accumulations should be farther north/west and inland to the I-95 corridor points west. Right now, I dont expect much if any accumulation on the front side, an extended period of rain, then a few inches on the back side, more likely the farther west you go. If the changeover is quicker, then more snow is possible. But with a fast moving storm with no initial cold air(we have to wait for it to wrap around the back side)...Im not overly excited about significant snow prospects here. That can change...and theres two days for changes to occur. Of course Ill monitor closely. ON DECK...SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK: Another system is still showing up on the models, now looking more like Monday and Monday night instead of Tuesday. And I still think is has the better chance of being all snow in South Jersey. But the ultimate strength, track, and fate of Saturdays storm will in part determine what may or may not come from Mondays potential storm. So again as I always say...one at a time.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 05:20:12 +0000