MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE THE NW TREND OF THE STORMS TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW. DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 01:05:54 +0000
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