MODIS FIRST FOREIGN VISIT Since the time he was elected Prime Minister of India, there has been intense speculation about the first foreign country that the leader of 1.25 billion people and the worlds largest democracy would visit. There were rumours that it would most probably be Japan as Narendra Modi has extremely cordial relations with the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But as Prime Minister of India, Modi has to do a delicate balancing act. If he had chosen Japan for his first foreign visit, it would have sent wrong signals to China as our giant neighbour already suspects that the US, India and Japan are ganging up against it to create a counterbalance against Chinas growing military might in Asia. And while Modi might want to enhance ties with Japan, he knows that these will be mostly on an economic and political level as militarily Japan faces many constraints due to its self-imposed pacifist constitution. So Modi would not wish to antagonise China while at the same time making it clear to Beijing in no uncertain terms that he is no pushover like our previous Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Modi has decided to go to the USA in September and will most probably hold a bilateral summit with the American President Barack Obama after the UN General Assembly session. Being a pragmatist, Modi realises that he has to do business with the US whatever be the irritants between the two major democracies of the world. Whether it is politically, economically or militarily, the US is the best ally that India can have at the moment given our shared beliefs in free enterprise, individual freedoms and democracy. Even the US acknowledges this and thats why Obama wasted no time in congratulating Modi on his historic win and also instantly extended an invitation to the Indian Prime Minister to visit the US. This was a marked changed from the visa ban that the US had imposed on Modi for nine years citing his role in the 2002 Gujarat riots. But at the same time, Modi also did not wish to choose the US for his first foreign trip. There were many reasons for this. Firstly, if he had done so, he would have seemed too eager to please the US, a charge that he had been levelling against his predecessor Manmohan Singh. Secondly, though Modi is willing to do business with the US and be realistic in his approach to the two countries bilateral relations, it does not mean that he has either forgiven or forgotten the slight he suffered at the hands of the US.Thirdly, there are many major irritants dogging the Indo-US partnership and if things need to move forward then both sides will have to make gargantuan efforts to sort out these issues regarding trade, copyrights and protectionism. All this will take time and first Modi and Obama have to create personal chemistry, which is zero at the moment. So Modi will visit the US, meet the American President and views will be exchanged but to expect too much from this initial meeting could lead to disappointments. So far as Europe is concerned, then either politically or economically it cant seem to keep pace with either the US or China so visiting Europe can also wait and given the Russian President Vladimir Putins unpopularity among the worlds major democracies due to the ongoing tensions in Ukraine, even visiting Russia could have sent all the wrong signals to our major economic partners in the US, Europe and Japan. So Russia can also wait for the moment. Thats why, Modi has chosen to play it safe and will be visiting our closest and friendliest neighbour Bhutan in June as his first foreign tour. This sends the right signals to everyone. China is not displeased, Bhutan is ecstatic, the other neighbours are reassured that India is once again ready to play a constructive and pivotal role in the neighbourhood and is willing to revitalise a moribund SAARC, which is just chugging along without achieving anything.
Posted on: Thu, 05 Jun 2014 17:31:59 +0000
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