MUSEVENI VS. MBABAZI THIS IS NO LONGER A ONE-SIDED CONTEST. THIS IS THE AFRICAN ELEPHANT VS. THE INDIAN ELEPHANT. From time to time comes a presidential candidate or outspoken political figure that attracts national interest and a large following, only to fade away after a while and leaving behind crestfallen supporters. It was Paul Ssemogerere in 1996, Besigye between 2001 and 2011, and even briefly Gen David Sejusa in 2013. This year, 2014, has been all about Mbabazi. At first in February after the Kyankwanzi NRM retreat many Ugandans, resigned to the idea of an all-powerful Museveni, treated Mbabazi’s as one of those stories that would come and go quickly as had many before him, leaving Museveni as the unchallenged leader. But as it went on and on, it became clear that this was not just another story. The President was uncharacteristically indecisive and even hesitant about striking a final blow at Mbabazi, much to many people’s surprise. Even after the hammer blow finally came on September 18, it was not a total demolition. Mbabazi had, after all, been relieved of his most prominent office, that of Prime Minister, but in terms of organised grassroots politics, a ruling party Secretary-General is actually more powerful than a Prime Minister. This leaves Mbabazi technically still the second most powerful man in Uganda and leaves unresolved Museveni’s crisis of what to do about Mbabazi. You want another rap? Okay, I’ll continue with my rap. Once again we must ask the question of why it has taken an entire year for the President just to manage to relieve Mbabazi of only one of two of his offices. Mbabazi, as this broken record will say once again, has been building secondary NRM within the NRM party. He has also created a national and international political network loyal to him. This loyalty to Mbabazi must now be addressed, because it is the crucial explanation of why President Museveni is stuck with this problem called Amama Mbabazi. As many who follow the news know by now, Museveni can be a rather careless man in terms of getting things done. Not only are government hospitals and schools a shadow of their former self, but even within State House it can be frustrating to try and get things done and completed. One of these areas where Museveni is notoriously inconsistent is in his presidential pledges. He travels around the country, makes pledges of financial and material support and sometimes several years later, everybody from musicians, political campaign managers, suppliers of campaign vehicles and so on, grumble that they have still not been paid. Those who have dealt with Mbabazi tell a different story. Mbabazi is like the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin – a hardworking, long hours at the desk, meticulous type, keeping details of things to do. Where Mbabazi makes pledges to his supporters, there is always a follow up and a delivery. After the July 2010 bombings in Kampala, Mbabazi visited the survivors in hospital, pledged help, which came immediately. There are thousands of businesses, families, students, political operatives, aides, journalists, sportsmen, musicians and such like, whom Mbabazi has pledged to help or support and his civil servant-like desk-bound diligence has followed through. In other words, Mbabazi is the kind of man whose supporters are genuine, concrete supporters because he helps and does so in the way that matters most to them, with passports, scholarships, tenders, loans, cash and other real help, unlike his friend who lives near the top of Nsamizi Hill in Entebbe. Many, many businesses and families have vested economic interests in Mbabazi and will be upset if he were to lose any further influence and their concrete lives helped by him crumble. Mbabazi attracts the kind of loyalty that Museveni did among the FRONASA and NRA families and fighters in the late 1970s and up to mid 1980s. Many would hide their feelings in public but go underground for Mbabazi if he were to face further humiliation. President Museveni knows this all too well. Museveni, on the other hand comes across to many people as generally kinder than Mbabazi, perhaps warmer than Mbabazi. Mbabazi seems a bit too guarded, smooth, strict, rational and unflappable for many Ugandans to handle. Museveni is more relaxed, informal, publicly humorous and so seems more approachable. So now this war of the Musevenis and the Mbabazis comes down to two things: who are the larger number, the Ugandans who are fed up with all the incompetence in the government and public arena and want a leader who may get government working again, or the Ugandans who find leaders intimidating and so would like a casual leader who allows them to steal at will, throw garbage around and spend all day in office taking tea and gossiping? That is where the battle will be fought. Both men are reported to have a lot of money (and it is still not clear how they became so wealthy), both have influence in the military and intelligence services, the political grassroots and the civil society, media and religious establishments in Uganda. This is no longer a one-sided contest. This is the African elephant vs. the Indian elephant. THE LUWERO-BUSH WAR GENERAL HARBOURING SELFISH INTERESTS WITH NOTHING LEFT TO DELIVER TO HIS COUNTRY-MEN. M7 HAS LOST IT ALL; ONLY TIME WILL TELL.
Posted on: Sun, 05 Oct 2014 09:43:17 +0000
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