MY PERSONAL PREDICTIONS - GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014 *Best case scenario: - PTR/MMM: 22 - LEPEP: 38 *Worst case scenario: - PTR/MMM: 48 - LEPEP: 10 - FSM: 1 - MMSD: 1 *Most probable scenario: - PTR/MMM: 33 - LEPEP: 27 > ANALYSIS: All in all, it looks like PTR/MMM have failed at uniting the Mauritian population which was one of the main goals put forward during that campaign. In urban areas, low participation rates might signify that many militants have preferred not to vote than to vote for LEPEP. The fact that money was being distributed by PTR/MMM agents all day long, today, suggests that there is a real sense of uncertainty on their side as well but Navin Ramgoolams body language during the day didnt show any sign of panic, neither did that of Sir Aneerood Jugnauth. On the other hand, high participation rates in rural areas tend to indicate that supporters of both sides have voted massively to make their preference known, which will not ensure an easy win per constituency to any of the 2 alliances. As a matter of fact, forecasts for these particular elections are quite hard because MSM, PMSD and ML were quite insignificant on a polling scale at the beginning of the year while PTR and MMM looked like political giants. These elections will therefore be a test for LEPEP to know how much momentum they have really gathered since the inception of that alliance. The overall rate of participation to these elections (+/-72%) also show that Mauritians are growing more and more disinterested in local politics. Whatever be tomorrows results,it is clear that the Viré Mam syndrome has been a thorn in the PTR/MMMs side. At what extent remains to be seen but the initial idea of Paul Bérenger and Navin Ramgoolam at striking an alliance to dictate Mauritian politics for the next 5/7 years by winning 60-0 has undeniably been shattered to pieces. To conclude, I will say that, at worse, the Mauritian population will have prevented total dictatorship and, at best, restored complete democracy! We shall see tomorrow... Jason. #EneMamKinnViré
Posted on: Wed, 10 Dec 2014 17:42:42 +0000
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