Maine Fall/Winter/Spring 2014/2015 Outlook: First let me say this is far from my area of expertise--I am NOT a long range forecaster. But, since I get frequently asked, and am also curious myself, I have a couple of methods that I try to use to come up with a best guess for the upcoming winter season. I saw on a website Weather Prediction where this fellow uses current weather patterns, (upper level features etc.) and then looks for previous years that match up with what we have now. This method is what I used last year and found that going into last winter I had noticed similar summer/fall patterns of 2013 to what we saw in 2006. So, I simply guessed that we would see a winter of 2013/2014 similar to that of 2006/2007, and for the most part we did. With that in mind, this years pattern and resultant weather matches very well with the summer of 1958. So, I went back and looked at Jackman weather for fall/winter/spring of 1958/1959. If you are with me so far, then using this logic, we can possibly assume the fall/winter/spring of 2014/2015 will match up with what occurred in 1958/1959. October and November of 1958 saw about average temperatures and precipitation with no real abnormal weather. December of 58 was a cold and dry month. January and February were about average with temperatures and precipitation, and both saw a thaw, but thaws are generally normal anyways. So, the start of 59 as a whole was about on par for what we should expect in most winters. March was a bit colder than usual, but precipitation about normal. April began to warm up nicely and May was a very nice month. 1959 Ice out dates were; Sandy Stream April 19 and Big Wood on May 4. So, to sum it up, the fall/winter/spring of 1958/159 (as a whole) was near average on precipitation to possibly a touch below average and temperatures were slightly below average. Lets see how this plays out!!!
Posted on: Sun, 24 Aug 2014 13:21:30 +0000
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