Malaysia Airlines and the Malaysian government ought to appoint independent multinational monitors to assure a competent official investigation. There are formidable economic and political interests that will seek to influence official investigations. Other interests will impeach these investigative findings if they are inconvenient or uncomfortable, adding agony to the families of victims. A transparent and credible investigation representing all stakeholder interests is necessary. It must have overseers from China, the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. It must not be a Malaysia-only effort. Airlines and tourism create 345,000 jobs in Malaysia. The airline is a strategic asset for Malaysia. The government of Malaysia owns 69 percent of Malaysia Airlines. It has investigative authority over this incident. This raises the appearance of a conflict of interest. Chinese Ambassador Huang Huikang noted that Malaysian authorities are too “inexperienced and lacking the capacity” conduct a proper investigation. Malaysia is a tourist destination for 1.5 million Chinese a year who might boycott Malaysia and its products in years to come. China especially regain its confidence in a Malaysia-led inquiry. The same issues apply to the company, which has been in a financial turnaround intense cost-cutting mode whilst making passenger safety a principal feature of its brand. In its annual report, the company claims “Safety and security is our promise to customers”. This might be the worst global corporate crisis of 2014, maybe for many years to come. It is a case study in how not to manage a public relations crisis and reputation risk. It is unclear if Malaysia Airlines had a crisis management plan, public relations communications strategy and outside experts advising it before MH370 went astray. A search for witnesses and interviews are ongoing, but by whom? Field interviews must obtain crucial information from potential witnesses and informants. Both discordant information and information supporting prevailing hypotheses must be diligently obtained despite powerful influences and vested interests. Investigators must have integrity and courage, oversight by monitors and full support from the Prime Minister for a robust and accurate investigation in Malaysia. For example, witnesses might know that drowsy Aviation Maintenance Technicians (AMTs) might be a factor or maybe field service directives were skipped. (A broad FAA study found that AMTs get an average of just five hours of sleep daily. They need eight. Tired mechanics make mistakes). Criminal conduct by a pilot is possible and more likely than a catastrophic failure of a mission critical system in the B777. There are just too many redundant six sigma systems in the B777 - it might be the best commercial aircraft ever built. In contrast, there are pilot suicides in general and commercial aviation and almost no reported major mechanical defects in the B777. Profiles of pilot emotional resiliency in Kuala Lumpur and destination cities they visited might reveal emerging stressors and warning flags, or not. The fact is that most suicides are outwardly sudden and unexpected and notes are not usually left by victims. A digital trail on pilots hard drives might not exist. It is also true that the rate of suicides among hundreds of thousands of pilots is very low. So an investigator must weigh improbabilities to decide where to focus the investigation and keep in mind that he might be wrong and yet strive to get the truth. A colleague I worked with at a multinational law firm suddenly committed suicide one morning before work. He did not leave a note. He had a family. He was a lawyer, Ph.D, and M.D. He specialized in biotechnology patent prosecution. It was a senseless act without any warning signs. Many years as a criminal and corporate investigator taught me that it is difficult to make sense of these senseless acts. Evidence can be elusive and ambiguous. Dry runs for suicide often occur only inside a tormented and despairing mind. The victim suddenly decides today is the day and the opportunity is present. MH370 Captain Zaharie Shah was that day at the court sentencing of the opposition leader to the Malaysian government. He was an avid supporter of the defendant. Criminal justice practitioners know sentencing is an extremely emotional experience. Some people just snap and fold under the strain of seeing friends and relatives sentenced to prison. That is why security in the court is increased at sentencing hearings. Investigators need to get inside the heads and lives of the crew and identify significant life changes, stressors and signs of strain (Holmes and Rabe Stress Scale), e.g., marital strength, mental illness, financial stress, substance abuse, anger issues. Newspapers in China report that Captain Shah had marital problems, which is a top stressor. Divorce/separation and the sentencing of his political friend the same day of the flight might have been too much to bear. Suicide/homicide might be a desperate protest against the government that just jailed his friend, and recognition that his marriage was over. Witness memories are fresh now and they must be recorded now. It might take years to find the wreckage, examine every piece, and analyze all electronic devices within it. What is certain is that inevitable litigation will scrutinize the official investigation, attack it and expose any weaknesses or ambiguities. Thankfully, Boeing is assisting Malaysian authorities in their investigation. The B777 was first introduced in 1995. Thousands are flying worldwide. Its safety record is excellent. Again, statistical probability points to human causal factors (negligent maintenance) or intervention (homicide/suicide) rather than mechanical problems. We know someone skilled controlled the B777 after its course deviation and if no passengers had these skills, it had to be one of the pilots. Lessons can be taken from the investigation into the fatal EgyptAir 990 crash in 1999 (in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of New England, killing 217 people). Critics and proponents were split along Muslims, non-Muslims, U.S. and Egyptian nationalities. In that crash, the plane nose-dived into the ocean with the co-pilot at the controls. The EgyptAir co-pilot believed he would soon lose his job. His character and emotional stability were issues, based on documented misbehavior in the United States from F.B.I. witnesses. If all character witnesses had been in Cairo would they be as available, forthright and forthcoming? Kuala Lumpur is far better than Cairo but there are investigative constraints. The MH370s black boxes, cockpit voice recorders, and passenger electronic devices will be dispositive, if they are located. Until then, the hypothesis of human misconduct must be investigated in Kuala Lumpur, validated or ruled out. Impartial multinational investigative oversight might counter suspected conflicts of interest and avoid a controversy similar to EgyptAir 990, the consequences of which would be far more disruptive to all stakeholders.
Posted on: Thu, 27 Mar 2014 16:24:54 +0000
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