Many of you have asked me about the recent unthawing of relations between the United States and Cuba. Although I make no claim to be an expert, I think the starting point is to understand what has occurred and what has not. First, this was a very modest agreement remarkable more for the fact that Cuba and the United States agreed on anything than the actual agreement itself. President Barack Obama and President Castro only agreed to an exchange of a few prisoners and to hold discussions to establish diplomatic relations. The U.S. embargo on Cuba remains in force. The main question to be asked is why did this take so long? When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, Cuba was no longer a threat to U.S. security so I would have expected Presidents Bush or Clinton to have attempted to normalize relations. However, there were political pressures in both the U.S. and Cuba that stood in the way then and, to a much lesser extent, make it difficult even now. The Cuban-Americans who had their property stolen by Castro, most of whom live in the important, pivotal electoral state of Florida, strongly opposed any improvement in relations with Cuba as long as Castro remained in power. On the Cuban side, having the U.S. as an enemy with the ongoing U.S. embargo helped justify the failed communist economy. But now Cuba is very concerned that the anti-U.S. Venezuelan regime could fall and with it the subsidized oil that is critical to the Cuban economy which would probably cause a collapse of the Castro regime. And for Obama, who has had six years of abysmal foreign relations failures (with no end in sight), re-establishing relations with Cuba might give him at least one success for his legacy. So I believe the U.S. - Cuban relations are on their way to being restored but, given that the Republican Congress must lift the embargo, this is going to take a while yet. I am not even sure it will happen during Obamas presidency. But when it does happen I will applaud the move. The Cuban people are wonderful entrepreneurs and the country is beautiful. It is about time that Americans and Cubans enjoy the same great relationship that Canadians and Cubans have enjoyed for many years. As always, the people and the places are great; it is the governments that are the problem.
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 16:51:26 +0000
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