Market outlook: UOB September 26, 2013. Asian Markets • The key data out of Asia today will include Singapore’s Aug industrial production (IP) at 1 pm and Taiwan’s industrial production at 4 pm. Thailand Aug trade numbers will also be due at 4 pm today. Singapore’s IP growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.9% y/y from 2.7% in Jul. Taiwan’s industrial production is expected to rise 2.0% y/y, similar to 2.07% growth in Jul. In Thailand, the attention is on the trade deficit which is expected to remain at around US$2.3 bn in Aug, similar to Jul. • Taiwan CBC is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.875% at its scheduled quarterly meeting. The interest rate decision will be due at 5 pm today. Global Markets • The main focus today will be on the US, in terms of any signs of progress within Congress on fiscal matters. As far as economic data is concerned, the latest weekly jobless claims are expected to come in at 325k from the previous 309k. At the same time, Q2 GDP should be revised up to 2.6% from 2.5%. Also due in the US is August pending home sales, expected to see a decline of 1.0% mom, as well as the September Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. There are also a couple of Fed speakers due to speak. Outside the US, the Euro area money and credit aggregates will be of some interest, alongside Italy’s retail sales for July and an update on consumer confidence in France. • The greenback fell on the back of ongoing dispute of the US budget, and as durable goods orders added to expectations that the Fed will refrain from paring until at least December. EUR/USD edged higher to above the 1.3500-mark as Italian and German consumer confidence rose above expectations, offsetting an unexpected dip in the French business climate. USD/JPY initially recovered to a high of 98.82 but fell subsequently as equities struggled. The pair remains in the doldrums this morning, hovering around the 98.30-levels. GBP/USD got a lift from the better-than-expected CBI data, which saw prices climbing over 1.60. AUD/USD slipped to lows of 0.9339 despite the rise in gold prices, but stabilised thereafter.
Posted on: Thu, 26 Sep 2013 02:00:01 +0000
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