Market update for the Phoenix area. Below is the myReal Estate Market Update compiled from Michael Orr’s ASU Monthly Housing Report, ARMLS STAT and The Arizona Republic. This data is typically 45 days behind current market conditions. Feel free to share this. If you are need of real estate services in the Phoenix or Prescott area contact me. I would love to help. June Stats from ARMLS ·New Listingsin June fell by 6% to 9,246 from the prior month.Year over year we are down .3% ·Inventory: Total inventory declined again 1.1% to 19,511 in June…Months supply of inventory is 2.37 ·As of July 11th…ARMLSshowed 15,725 active listings with 3,786 UCB listings…30,000 active listings is considered normal! ·Home Sales:June sales decreased 12.8% to 8,228 from May.Year over year we are plus 1.2% ·June’s median new list priceremained flat at $199,900. The average new list price declined from $281,670 to $275,608. ·June’s median sales price increased 2.9% to $180,000, representing a27.7% gain over the past 12 months. Average sales price slipped to $236,954 from $237,800, indicating a25.7% increase since June 2012. ·Foreclosures pending dropped again in June to 8,027 falling 9% from last month and down 55% Year over year!! ·Distressed sales total(short sales plus lender owned sales) of 1,766 fell again as a percentage of total sales to 21.5% ·From the PPI Supplement (source ARMLS)…this shows the Price Points where most contacts are being written: The following data is from ASU W.P. Carey School of Business with Michael Orr, Director Center of Real Estate Practice and Theory Price Per SQ FT continues upward in all categories!!! Normal Re-Sales ·Normal single family re-salesgrew 72% from 3,629 in May 2012 to 6,231 in May 2013. Pricing recovery for normal re-sales occurred later than for other sectors, but they have now joined in the overall price increases, albeit relatively modestly. The average sales price is up 4%, the median sales price is up 13% and average price per sq. ft. is up 7% over the year.Normal re-sales have increased their market share to 63% from 37% a year ago and are now by far the most numerous type of sale. Out of State Purchasers ·The percentage of residences in Maricopa County sold to owners from outside Arizona was 22% in May 2013 by unit count, 1% lower than April and down substantially fromthe peak of 29% that we saw in April 2012.Californians increased their market share from 4.6% to 4.7% over the last month and retained their normal position as the largest group of out of state buyers.Canadians fell from 3.1% to 2.6% to retain second place. Washington, Colorado and Illinois were once again the next most numerous locations for home buyers in May, all unchanged in ranking from the previous four months. Cash Buyers ·In Maricopa County the percentage of properties recording an Affidavit of Value and purchased without financingwas 32.3% in May 2013, down from 37.1% in May 2012. For comparison, in June 2007 we saw 8.3% of sales being completed by cash buyers. THE OUTLOOK from Michael Orr… The Greater Phoenix housing market has been dominated by supply constraints for the last two years and it now looks as though this will continue indefinitely. The chronic shortage applies both to homes for purchase and homes for lease, though it is most severe for low priced homes for purchase.The most fundamental of the many drivers of the housing market is the balance between population growth and the net number of homes added to the housing stock. ·Recently released estimates from the Census Bureau show that between 2010 and 2012 the combined population of Maricopa and Pinal Counties grew by 2.9% while the number of dwelling units (owned and leased) grew by 1.0%. The resulting imbalance of almost 3 to 1 makes it obvious why such little supply is unable to meet what is really just average demand. ·The total number of active ARMLS for-sale listings is about half what we would expect in a balanced market.New home permits are being issued at about one third of normal levels. It is natural to assume that this abnormal situation will return to normal sometime over the next decade, but at the moment we are still on the down-swing. Homes are still getting scarcer relative to the number people living here. ·In the January report we predicted thatprices would rise significantly during the first half of the year. Between January and May the average price per square foot has indeed risen nearly 13% for single family homes. This upward pricing pressure should ease during June and we expect it to disappear during the summer, but it is likely to resume in earnest once temperatures drop below 100 degrees and the snowbirds return. ·The expected lull in pricing between June and September will allow time for appraisers to catch up with the large increase in average sales price per sq. ft. that we have just experienced since January. This will be a boon for financed buyers and will improve their competitiveness versus cash buyers for a brief period.Anyone who needs to buy a home in Greater Phoenix would probably be best advised to do so during this lull rather than wait, since prices are likely to resume their strong upward direction in the fall.
Posted on: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 05:26:59 +0000
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