Matt RT12 Good day friends and chasers and Spotters be safe ride like the wind, and keep the dirty side down. Here is todays outlook, VALID 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...MID ATLANTIC AND EXTREME SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY... A SYNOPTIC-SCALE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND A SECONDARY LOW MOVES ENEWD FROM NJ TO CAPE COD. IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK LEE TROUGH ACROSS VA/NC...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITHIN THE CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO NJ...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AND A LEAD SPEED MAX. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED ROTATING STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN NJ...AND PERHAPS SKIRTING LONG ISLAND AND THE EXTREME SE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH 18-21Z. STILL...THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC AND VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS ARE AT THEIR MOST FAVORABLE NOW...SO ANY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO RISK WILL BE MARGINAL FROM HERE FORWARD. FARTHER S...THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. HOWEVER...MLCAPE COULD STILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE VA INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC...WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS BUOYANCY...COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ...RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY... A SERIES OF SUBTLE FRONTAL SEGMENTS AND SURFACE TROUGHS...ALONG WITH THE PRIMARY REINFORCING FRONT TO THE N AND ZONES OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...WILL PROVIDE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. A FEW DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS FROM N/NE TX TO NRN LA AND CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATEST. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER E INTO AL/GA...THOUGH LESSER STORM COVERAGE AND BUOYANCY SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT TO NEB HAVE REINFORCED A WEAK NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY. SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT/LEE TROUGH AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS. STILL...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE WEAK AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS...A FEW LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE BUOYANCY...BUT LONG-LIVED AND/OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 08/13/2013
Posted on: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 16:28:27 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015