Mesoscale discussion #1699 Concerning SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 5%= No WATCH Issued. A few strong storms will be possible as well as an isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the question this afternoon and evening across part of NW, west central, SW, and south central Oklahoma along any weak boundries that are in place over the area. DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS INSOLATION OCCURS AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE 60S OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO THE LOWER 70S IN PARTS OF WRN OK. SFC OBS INDICATE A CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN NM ENEWD INTO NWRN OK...WHERE IT LINKS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL OK. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE INVOF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS IN THE TX PANHANDLE...AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM NM. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BOLSTER UPDRAFT SHELTERING...WITH ACCOMPANYING ASCENT SERVING TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EVIDENT IN A MODIFIED 12Z AMA RAOB. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CORES...AND A MARGINAL SVR THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY OF BEING STEERED INTO WRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING GIVEN 20-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. ASSOCIATED DEEP SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODEST...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM WILL LIMIT NORMALIZED CAPE...AND THE BELOW-1-KM-AGL FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING CONVERGENCE ARE -- AND SHOULD REMAIN -- RELATIVELY WEAK PER SFC OBS AND VWP DATA. THESE FACTORS WILL LARGELY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION...AS STORMS EXHIBIT PULSE/OCCASIONAL MULTICELLULAR MODES. BrianJ
Posted on: Mon, 12 Aug 2013 19:44:15 +0000
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