Meteorology 101: Why Uncertainty Exists Computer model animation of disturbances in the upper atmosphere Thursday through next Tuesday. Image credit: WSI Atmospheric disturbances responsible for spawning a potential future East Coast winter storm are many times thousands of miles away several days in advance of the storm. Sometimes, the future disturbances havent even formed yet or break apart from a larger weather system. In the case of next weeks potential storm, this hold true. This is why the output from various computer models can vary wildly from run to run. Given the complexity involved in computing the future evolution of this type of situation, we should expect a high level of uncertainty for a few more days until we get a little closer to the time frame for this potential storm. The animation above and to the right is the computer model forecast of upper disturbances (light green, yellow, orange shadings) in the atmosphere from Thursday to Tuesday next week over North America and the north Pacific. Without getting into details, you can see that the atmosphere above us is complex. How these impulses track, interact and break apart dictate how future weather conditions will evolve. Another typical uncertainty, particularly with early spring storms, is how much cold air is available for the storm to tap and produce wintry weather. In this case, it appears the air mass will be plenty cold enough, so that is not major factor. Unless your plans are sensitive to weather disruptions, its probably best to sit tight and not reschedule your activities until next weeks forecast becomes much clearer. In the meantime, check back with The Weather Channel and weather for updates.
Posted on: Thu, 20 Mar 2014 18:59:54 +0000
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