Mikael Höök, et al. in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal - TopicsExpress

Mikael Höök, et al. in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, December 2013 Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. [The] decline in existing production is between 4% and 8% annually. Expressed in production capacity, this means that roughly a new North Sea (approx. 5 million barrels per day) has to come on stream every year just to keep the present output constant. This implies that nearly five new Saudi Arabias would be needed by 2030 just to offset the decline in existing production.

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