Models have come into better agreement regarding the track of this weekends system. A surface low pressure system will develop over Texas and move NE into Illinois on Saturday and then into lower Michigan on Sunday. A warm front associated with this system will advance into Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio Saturday morning spreading precipitation across the area. The precip will lighten up Saturday afternoon before the cold front sweeps through the region bringing heavier showers and possibly a few thunderstorms (best threat for thunder will be south of I-70 in Ohio and Indiana); well have to watch out for some gusty winds with these showers that could get close to severe levels (though widespread severe weather is not expected). Precip type is still somewhat uncertain for much of the area due to the very good likelihood of the precip beginning as a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow, with freezing rain especially likely due to the lack of snow cover which should allow temperatures to warm a bit faster than would otherwise be expected. Amounts, however, will depend on exact surface temperatures at individual locations which are nearly impossible to predict precisely this far in advance. Temperatures should be warm enough by noon Saturday for all rain areawide, though this too could change if the system slows down or speeds up. As the system pushes through, a band of snow is expected to develop west of Chicago late Saturday night into Sunday morning and may put down a few inches of snow in this area before the system exits, though these details are also uncertain. Beyond Sunday morning, expect temperatures to fall on Sunday behind the front followed by a Clipper system that could bring some light to moderate snow to the area, and then lake effect snow could fall. Lets get through this weekend first before talking about next week in detail. Here are forecast maps for 7am, 1pm, 7pm, 1am, and 7am Saturday through Sunday from the GFS model (the most consistent of the models so far). Stay tuned to later forecasts for more details. #ohwx #inwx #ilwx
Posted on: Fri, 02 Jan 2015 00:05:00 +0000
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