Modi’s Visit Foreshadows Challenges for ‘Lame Duck’ Obama Last week’s meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington provides a convenient benchmark to assess where U.S. foreign policy is as we approach the final stretch of the current administration. A consistent theme of Obama’s presidency has been the inability to pivot from crisis management to longer-term planning. With regard to the latter goal, the value of stronger ties with a rising power like India is clear. Yet, it is telling that the meeting took place even as the Obama administration struggles to manage the Ebola pandemic in West Africa, the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) and the confrontation with Russia over Ukraine—to say nothing of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and ongoing tensions in the South China Sea between China and its East Asian maritime neighbors. At least Modi and Obama finally met face to face—Modi had already been courted by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. And the optics of the visit seemed positive, with both leaders hitting all the right notes about partnership, cooperation and being “natural allies.” Yet the visit fell far short of achieving any dramatic reorientations in the Indo-American bilateral relationship. In fact, those expectations were deliberately tamped down, replaced by a series of more modest agreements. The summit—long on symbolism, short on substance—allows observers to draw some conclusions as to how U.S. foreign policy is likely to be conducted in the remaining time allotted to the Obama administration. First, the summit sends a very clear signal that the White House is putting policy into holding patterns. As one assessment of the meeting’s outcome put it, both leaders did the “minimum needed to infuse new energy” into the relationship, but major breakthroughs and new initiatives were not forthcoming, nor should they be expected. The main results seem to be incremental progress on trade issues and on habituating the two sides’ military establishments to cooperation, leaving it up to the next president to decide where, when and under what circumstances to accelerate the relationship. U.S. relations with other rising powers are being eased into similar holding patterns, notably Brazil, no matter who wins its presidential run-off vote later this month. Perhaps after the midterm elections, when the president has no further obligations to the electoral fortunes of his party, he will be more inclined to begin clearing his plate and working on long-term, foundational issues. But as Obama comes to be seen as a lame duck, other partners may be less inclined to launch any expansive new projects and may prefer keeping the holding patterns in place until it becomes clear who the next U.S. leader is likely to be. Second, the Modi-Obama conclave, despite the veneer of good will, exposed the real difficulties the Obama administration now faces in crafting durable coalitions characterized by genuine burden-sharing among members to tackle critical issues. The Obama administration is unfortunately dealing with the repercussions of its messaging strategy, with other states reluctant to make serious contributions in the perceived absence of a sustained U.S. commitment. Modi took a pleasant stroll with Obama around the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial, but declined to back stronger economic action against Iran to pressure Tehran into a nuclear deal, eschewed joining Western sanctions on Russia and expressed concern about the impact of a U.S. disengagement from Afghanistan. Modi’s misgivings over Afghanistan mirror those of a number of the states surrounding Syria and Iraq, as well as various European Union members—namely, that they will be left to deal with the fallout and negative consequences of U.S. actions taken against IS or against Russia in response to the Ukraine crisis. Obama, in turn, has been stymied by poor relations with both Congress and the U.S. business community, depriving him of some of the traditional levers of U.S. diplomacy. He has far fewer sweeteners to offer other states for their cooperation, such as economic aid, preferential trading arrangements or the prospect of increased U.S. investment. Even his two signature trade proposals—for creating massive trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic partnerships—are jeopardized by the continued unwillingness of Congress to grant trade promotion authority, which would allow the executive to bargain and compromise more effectively. With a suspicious Congress lurking in the background, other countries will be highly reluctant to make any concessions to Washington without ironclad guarantees that compromises offered by the administration would remain intact in any final agreement. Finally, even though Obama praised Modi’s leadership and the strength of India’s democracy, the U.S. is finding it increasingly difficult to deal with a new generation of nationalist leaders coming to prominence among the rising powers. These leaders no longer seek a U.S. “seal of approval” for how they conduct their affairs, nor show much patience for American lectures about democracy and human rights. They reject the notion that the U.S. gets to choose the “default setting” for what constitutes a democratic state or good global citizenship. It must be particularly irritating to Obama that Putin, who is increasingly held in contempt in Washington for his domestic and foreign policies, has gained in popularity in the non-Western world for his perceived strength of leadership. Modi had kind words to say about Obama, but he has been equally complimentary of Russia’s president, especially regarding his decisiveness. There was nothing disastrous about the Modi visit, but nothing particularly spectacular either. This is likely to be the pattern of U.S. foreign policy as Obama wraps up his tenure in the White House, leaving the dramatics to his successor. Nikolas K. Gvosdev, a contributing editor at the National Interest, is a visiting professor at Brown University.
Posted on: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 09:32:21 +0000
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