Monster super typhoon HAGUPIT spins east of Philippines. Outlook becoming clearer. Posted on December 5, 2014 by Voxianguy Posted in Daily Updates, General Post, Philippines Forecast, Storm Tracker, Storm Update, Tropicals As the sun comes up over the turbulent waters of the western Pacific, some clarity is afoot for followers of super typhoon HAGUPIT (Ruby) as it continues to threaten the Philippines. Here’s the latest information on HAGUPIT (Ruby) from the JTWC at 04/21z: Position: 11.5N, 130.0E Location: 502km E of Borongan, Samar, PHL 1,041km ESE of Manila, NCR, PHL Movement: WNW (295 degrees) at 10kt (18 kph) Winds (est.): 145kt (268kph) with gusts to 175kt (324kph) Category: 5- Super Typhoon Pressure (est.) 914-917mb (26.99-27.07in) 24 hours has seen big changes with super typhoon HAGUPIT, named “Ruby” by the Philippine’s meteorological agency, PAGASA. From a category 5 storm yesterday afternoon with winds in excess of 155 kt. (287kph), the storm has started weakening SLIGHTLY as it encounters adverse upper-level conditions. Estimates put wind speeds near 145kt (268kph), which is still a SERIOUSLY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 storm, and a general weakening trend is forecast for the duration of the storm’s lifespan. Some have speculated there is an ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) taking place, but I don’t see evidence of that. What I see is 20-25kt easterly VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) taking the cloud tops and covering the eye, which was quite visible yesterday, and is still evident in microwave satellite imagery. This is also evident in the recent cooling of the eye, which at one point was at 15C yesterday. This would indicate some weakening of the system at the core, but make no mistake, this storm is still a monster, and will weaken very slowly over the next 48-72 hours. Where will it go? It would appear that the models are coming closer to an agreement now, with the ECM an JMA models showing a northerly adjustment in comparison to previous forecasts, and the GFS and NAVGEM models adjusting to the south. These adjustments would all but eliminate the earlier recurvature and west-runner to WSW scenarios that were present just yesterday. Anything is possible, but the consensus of the models takes HAGUPIT (Ruby) into the Philippines tomorrow afternoon (local time) in Samar Island, Visayas as a strong category 4 super typhoon. At this time, there is about a 400km variation in the exact tracks given by the forecast models. The consensus shows most of the direct effects of the typhoon will be felt in northern portions of the Visayas, in the Bicol peninsula of Luzon, and along the southern Luzon coast and provinces of the Calabarzon region. Of course, there are still changes that will occur, and with all of the variables playing into the scenarios, a certain track will likely not be determined until about 12 hours out from ETA. Have a wonderful Friday! Courtesy: CIMSS, JTWC, JMA, PAGASA, NRL, Tropical Tidbits
Posted on: Fri, 05 Dec 2014 02:33:04 +0000
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