Morning Grain Comments for Thursday July 25, 2013 CORN: Corn is trading lower this morning as weather forecast still sees no heat the next 15 day out while the Midwest is to see 3 separate rain events between today and next Friday. Weekly export sales showed some old crop cancellations while new crop sales were a little less than expected. Asian countries continue to book corn from the Black Sea for the Nov/Dec slots. S. Korea last night passed on a tender for 70k tons but booked 120k tons of corn and 60k tons of feed wheat from the Black Sea for Dec/Jan ship. Corn basis levels are steady for now but have a queasy feel with some increased farmer selling in recent days. WHEAT: Wheat is slightly lower this morning but trading both sides in KC and Mpls. Weekly export sales were better than expected though the flush in beans and corn will keep pressure on Chicago wheat. Japan booked 101,371 tons of wheat this week with 61k tons from the US. Brazilian wheat areas still dealing with frost and trying to assess amount of frost damage. The 2nd day of the US spring wheat tour found yields a little less than a year ago at 45.1 bpa vs 45.5 bpa last year (5 year avg though is 42.6 bpa for that area). Wheat basis is holding firm with little farmer movement. Look for choppy trade in the wheat market today. SOY-COMPLEX: The complex is sharply lower with Aug meal limit down again and synthetically trading another limit down. With open interest still over 25,000 contracts in Aug meal and over 27,000 Aug beans with just 4 days to FND the best analogy on this price flush is comparable to a herd of elephants trying to squeeze through a narrow cattle chute. Most processors are now bidding off the Nov contract or expected to roll shortly. Weekly export sales were better than expected on beans and in old crop meal. Indonesia, Japan and Taiwan were light buyers on beans while in the soymeal the Philippines and Mexico were the main buyers. Weather forecast remains favorable for US growing conditions the next 15 days with cool temps and 3 different rain chances. Key support for Nov beans toward the $12.00-12.25 area.
Posted on: Thu, 25 Jul 2013 13:44:51 +0000