Morning of the Melbourne Cup - the best day of the year. Hopefully all you punters are on a good thing this afternoon. To help, here is our detailed preview of every runner in the 2013 Melbourne Cup. 1 – DUNADEN (Barrier 1), 58.5kg, J: Jamie Spencer, T: Mikel Delzangles. Career = 41:10-11-8, Last 10 = 26-105-43228 Odds (Courtesy of Bet365) - $46 The 2011 winner is aiming to become the first horse since Peter Pan in 1934 to win 2 Melbourne Cups in non-successive years. Owner Geoffrey Faber claims the horse is in career best condition and last year’s first up Caulfield Cup win (2400m G1) makes him confident that opting not to have an Australian race prior to the Melbourne Cup was a good move. Undoubtedly the best horse in the race; however the weight is a huge factor. Americain (4th 2011), Makybe Diva (1st 2005) and Vinnie Roe (2nd 2004) are the only horses in the past decade to have carried 58kg or more and finished in the top four. Impossible to back and given the strength of the field, hard to include in any Trifecta’s and First 4’s. 2 – GREEN MOON (Barrier 10), 57.5kg, J: Brett Prebble, T: Robert Hickmott. Career = 25:7-3-0, Last 10 = 52171-44-599 Odds - $46 The 2012 winner is aiming to become the first horse since Makybe Diva to achieve back to back Melbourne Cup successes. Comparing the 2012 and 2013 campaigns reveals chalk and cheese. In 2012, Green Moon entered the Melbourne Cup off the back of a 2nd in the Feehan (1600m G2), a win in the Turnbull (2000m G1), a solid Cox Plate run (2040m G1) plus carried 54.5kg in a ‘sit and sprint’ Melbourne Cup. This year he was 9th in the Underwood (1800m G1), could only manage 9th in the Cox Plate (2040m G1) and now has to lug 57.5kg around the Flemington circuit. Can’t see it happening and a top 10 finish looks beyond him. 3 – RED CADEAUX (Barrier 23), 56.5kg, J: Gerald Mosse, T: Ed Dunlop. Career = 40:7-10-6, Last 10 = 881-2389624 Odds - $81 The nemesis of Dunaden is back for another tilt at the Melbourne Cup. Like Dunaden, Red Cadeaux is in career best form, having won the Hong Kong Vase (2400m G1) and finishing 2nd in the Dubai World Cup (2000m G1). Again like Dunaden, the weight is a huge concern and to add to that, is starting from barrier 23. Would have to break a lot of longstanding weight and barrier trends to feature in the finish, pass. 4 – SEA MOON (Barrier 7), 56.5kg, J: Steven Arnold, T: Robert Hickmott. Career = 14:6-3-1, Last 10 = 32-1158-0021 Odds - $14 A highly rated European stayer brought over by the Williams camp specifically for the 2013 Melbourne Cup. His four Australian runs have been what you’d expect from a genuine stayer, he struggled to 12th in the Makybe Diva (1600m G1) and 14th in the Underwood (1800m G1), but came into his own with a 2nd at huge weight in the Bart Cummings (2520m Listed) and a win in the Herbet Power (2400m G2). The question mark is the amount of horses that come into the race better off in the weight department, but he’s certainly in the mix. It’s interesting to point out that Steven Arnold gets the ride on Sea Moon, whilst Lloyd Williams top hoops Prebble, Bowman, Hall and Rodd have been assigned other horses. That says to me that Lloyd has question marks over Sea Moon also. 5 – BROWN PANTHER (Barrier 6), 55kg, J: Richard Kingscote, T: Tom Dascombe. Career = 17:7-3-1, Last 10 = 2-417238-115 Odds - $21 Owned by former Liverpool, Real Madrid and Man Utd champion Michael Owen, Brown Panther has a lot of support. Lightly raced in 2013 with just the 3 starts; the Melbourne Cup always being the #1 target. Wins in the Castle Stakes (2410m Listed) and Goodwood Cup (3200m G2) followed by a 5th in the Greene King (1947m Listed), all with heavy weight on its back. Drops down to 55kg here and there are no doubts about the 3200m. A major player and sure to have a lot of support in the betting ring come race time. 6 – FIORENTE (Barrier 5), 55kg, J: Damien Oliver, T: Gai Waterhouse. Career = 15:3-4-2, Last 10 = 26142-3-6143 Odds - $7.50 Surprised a lot of mug punters with a slashing 2nd in this race last year. In ominous signs, he looks a much better horse this time round with a win in the Feehan (1600m G2), a fast finishing 4th in the Turnbull (2000m G1) after being last heading into the straight, plus a 3rd place in the Cox Plate (2040m G1) after being trapped 4 wide without cover for the first half of the race and forced to take off at the 800m. Has a favourable barrier and duly deserves the favourite tag. The only question mark (and somewhat contradictory) is Fiorente’s Cox Plate run. Whilst being nothing short of amazing, history tells us that horses don’t bounce back to their best just 10 days after such a gruelling run. Whilst it’s a must to include in all multiples and can certainly win at its best, don’t be surprised to see Fiorente finish in the back half of the field. 7 – FORETELLER (Barrier 15), 55kg, J: Craig Newitt, T: Chris Waller. Career = 36:10-4-1, Last 10 = 71522-81024 Odds - $31 Career best form for this 7 year old Gelding. His 2013 has included wins in the Ranvet (2000m G1) and the Makybe Diva (1600m G1), seconds in the Doomben Cup (2000m G1) and the Caulfield Stakes (2000m G1), plus an eye catching 4th in the Cox Plate (2040m G1) despite being at the rear end of the field at the 400m. All of the above mentioned races have been with 59kg on his back so the drop to 55kg looks ominous. The only query is whether he’ll stay the journey, to which he is untried beyond 2400m. Trainer Chris Waller has the most Group 1’s of all trainers this season and jockey Craig Newitt has the most Group 1’s of all jockeys this season. $31 is way over the odds, include in all Trifecta’s and First 4’s and don’t be surprised to see Foreteller being first past the post. 8 – DANDINO (Barrier 4), 54.5kg, J: Ryan Moore, T: Marco Botti. Career = 26:8-9-1, Last 10 = 272127-2212 Odds - $13 Dandino follows a similar path to that of 2012 Melbourne Cup third placegetter Jakkalberry. Jakkalberry had a 5th in the Hardwicke (2400m G2) and won the USA St Leger (2700m G1) before coming to Australia and running 13th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m G1). Dandino was 2nd in the Hardwicke (2400m G2), won the USA St Leger (2700m G1) and ran an eye catching 2nd in the Caulfield Cup (2400m G1) after starting from barrier 16. Owner Darren Dance is thrilled with Dandino’s form and believes that with the good barrier draw can get the win in 2013 that Jakkalberry was so close to getting in 2012. One of the top hopes that will surely feature in the finish. 9 – ETHIOPIA (Barrier 14), 54.5kg, J: Rhys McLeod, T: Pat Carey. Career = 13:1-1-2, Last 10 = 1-7640-0-5004 Odds - $81 Hard to make a case for this Gelding. Had a solid 2012 prep before failing dismally in last year’s Melbourne Cup (finishing a distant last) and his 2013 hasn’t shown anything to suggest that things will be different this year. 13th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m G1) before a solid 4th in the Lexus (2500m G3). Deserves a spot in the field but there are others who are simply a lot better, hard to see Ethiopia finishing in the first half of the field. 10 – FAWKNER (Barrier 8), 54.5kg, J: Nicholas Hall, T: Robert Hickmott. Career = 20:9-3-3, Last 10 = 1-1112-3-7531 Odds - $15 The Caulfield Cup winner enters this year’s Melbourne Cup on the back of some outstanding form. After dominating the middle distances in last year’s Spring Carnival, Fawkner finished 5th in the George Main (1600m G1), 3rd in the Turnbull (2000m G1) and 1st in the Caulfield Cup (2400m G1) this preparation. One of Lloyd Williams main chances and should get a good run in the race from barrier 8. The big query is can he run out 3200m, many Caulfield Cup winners have failed when stepping up the extra 800m, however the Williams camp is optimistic, after all, until two weeks ago he’d never run beyond 2000m and it didn’t stop him winning the Caulfield Cup. Wouldn’t surprise and there’s a tough decision whether or not to include him in your Box 6’s and Box 8’s etc. 11 – MOURAYAN (Barrier 19), 54.5kg, J: Brenton Avdulla, T: Robert Hickmott. Career = 41:5-8-5, Last 10 = 174-8841-787 Odds - $201 History is against Mourayan in the Cup, only two 8 year olds have ever won the Cup. Add barrier 19 to the mix and it’s hard to build a case. Won the Sydney Cup (3200m G1) in the Autumn at top-weight however the Autumn is not the Spring. Laboured to 8th in the Metropolitan (2400m G1) and 7th in the Mackinnon (2000m G1) recently so will be in the Cup purely to be a pacemaker for team Williams. Expect Mourayan to go forward early, provide cover for the Williams runners before tailing off to a distant 24th. 12 – SEVILLE (Barrier 9), 54.5kg, J: Hugh Bowman, T: Robert Hickmott. Career = 19:2-6-1, Last 10 = 94-052-00917 Odds - $17 Comes into the race with sound form. Finished 2nd in last year’s Turnbull (2000m G1) before being spelled for 11 months, only resuming in late August with 13th in the Memsie (1400m G1). Has been steadily building this prep and it’s victory in the Metropolitan (2400m G1) and solid 7th in the Cox Plate (2040m G1) has this horse primed for a Melbourne Cup tilt. Gets in well at the weights and has a good barrier. Interestingly, Lloyd Williams #1 jockey Hugh Bowman has been given the ride on Seville, that suggests that Seville is team Williams favoured hope of their 6 runners. If so, respect must be given. Can win and is good value at $17. 13 – SUPER COOL (Barrier 13), 54.5kg, J: Corey Brown, T: Mark Kavanagh. Career = 14:4-2-3, Last 10 = 12-311-34935 Odds - $51 The sleeping giant of the field. Had a sensational Spring of 2012 and Autumn of 2013 with a victory in the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m G2) and a 2nd in the Victoria Derby (2500m G1) backed up with a victory in the Australian Cup (2000m G1). This preparation has seen a 9th in the Turnbull (2000m G1), 3rd in the Caulfield Stakes (2000m G1) and a very solid 5th in the Cox Plate (2040m G1). It’s interesting to point out that the 3 most recent results have come whilst carrying 57.5kg, 58kg and 57.5kg. Super Cool only has to carry 54.5kg in the Cup, the same weight he carried when winning the Australian Cup and a kilo less than he carried when finishing 2nd in the Victoria Derby. From a bloodline not known for its production of stayers, Super Cool is still one of the main hopes and at $51 is by far the best value bet of the field. For all the superstitious out there, the last time a horse won the Melbourne Cup by starting from the same barrier as its race number was Shocking (#21 from barrier 21) in 2009. Shocking was also trained by Mark Kavanagh and ridden by Corey Brown…… 14 – MASKED MARVEL (Barrier 2), 54kg, J: Michael Rodd, T: Robert Hickmott. Career = 17:4-1-2, Last 10 = 0-73948-0320 Odds - $41 Masked Marvel comes into the Cup highly rated, albeit with question marks over its form. Has mixed it with Mount Athos, Red Cadeaux, Sea Moon and Brown Panther in Europe however has looked out of its depth here in Australia. 14th in the Makybe Diva (1600m G1), 3rd in the Hill Stakes (2000m G2), 2nd in the Craven Plate (2000m G3) and 13th in the Cox Plate (2040m G1) are certainly nothing to write home about. Comes in well with regards to weight and barrier, but one gets the feeling that Masked Marvel is the Williams camp’s backup plan if the race is run at a fast tempo. A win would surprise but jockey Michael Rodd is a Melbourne Cup winner so if anyone can get Masked Marvel into the money it’s him. I won’t be including him in any multiples. 15 – MOUNT ATHOS (Barrier 22), 54kg, J: Craig Williams, T: Luca Cumani. Career = 26:8-1-1, Last 10 = 4-11150-1582 Odds - $10 Had a cracking run in the Cup last year when finishing an unlucky 5th, was checked violently on the turn for home when mid field but still managed to rattle home and if there was another 100m, would have won the race. This prep has seen 5th in the Hardwicke (2400m G2), 8th in the Goodwood Cup (3200m G2) and 2nd in the March Stakes (2800m Listed), but interestingly finished behind Dandino and Brown Panther in the Goodwood Cup and March Stakes respectively. The positive is that it has Australian runs on the board and manages to enter the Cup with the same weight on its back as last year. The negative (and a huge one at that) is drawing barrier 22. Both trainer Luca Cumani and owner Marwan Koukash have said they’d prefer a good horse in a bad gate than a bad horse in a good gate however those words have come out of many international trainers mouth’s. There are certain trends that have been true in the century and a half of the Melbourne Cup with regard to weight and barriers and the stronger the fields get, the more those trends will stay true. In this modern era of the Cup, where every horse on its day can win, it’s hard to see a 54kg horse being able to win from barrier 22. Hard to leave out of Trifecta’s and First 4’s but be very wary in backing Mount Athos to be the first past the post. 16 – ROYAL EMPIRE (Barrier 11), 54kg, J: Kerrin McEvoy, T: Saeed Bin Suroor. Career = 13:5-5-1, Last 10 = 62-1220-1122 Odds - $22 Probably Godolphin’s best chance to win a Melbourne Cup in their 16 years of trying. Very strong UK form when defeating Red Cadeaux in the Geoffrey Freer (2700m G3) and then backed it up with a 2nd in the September Stakes (2400m G3) and 2nd in the Cumberland (2400m G3). Barrier 11 is the most successful barrier in Melb Cup history and has produced 4 winners since 1983. Usually arriving on the Friday or Saturday before the Melbourne Cup, Saeed Bin Suroor has been in Victoria for nearly a fortnight now, which suggests that the Godolphin camp is very excited about their chances. Must be respected and included in all multiples and may just be the horse to break the drought for the world’s largest racing owners. $22 is very good each way value. 17 – VOLEUSE DE COEURS (Barrier 21), 54kg, J: James McDonald, T: Michael Moroney. Career = 13:5-3-2, Last 10 = 14411-21321 Odds - $18 One of the high fancies for the Cup until the barrier draw took place; Voleuse De Coeurs has now drifted slightly. Exceptional UK form with 3rd in the Curragh Cup (2800m G3), 2nd in the St Leger Trial (2800m G3) and 1st in the St Leger (2800m G1). Carried 61kg in all three of those runs so will appreciate the drop to 54kg around the Flemington circuit. Will get the distance and has claims to be the best of the internationals however there are two glaring question marks. Firstly, this Mare has never raced in Australia before and secondly, barrier 21 is a big problem. Would need the race to be run at a fast tempo right from the jump if it wants to feature in the finish and with team Williams having 6 horses in the field, it’s hard to see an ultra-fast tempo being set. A roughie at best, $18 would seem big unders and probably the minor placing’s are its best hope. 18 – HAWKSPUR (Barrier 18), 53.5kg, J: Jim Cassidy, T: Chris Waller. Career = 23:7-6-0, Last 10 = 2611171457 Odds - $16 The beaten Caulfield Cup favourite enters the Melbourne Cup on the back of a long preparation. Highlights of the 15 races he’s had since March are 1st in the Doomben Grand Prix (2200m G3), 1st in the Queensland Derby (2400m G1), 1st in the Chelmsford (1600m G2), an utterly amazing 5th in the Turnbull (2000m G1) after coming from 15th at the turn, before another fast finishing 7th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m G1) this time coming from 16th at the turn. No horse in history has won a Melbourne Cup from barrier 18, the only barrier without a winner, however Hawkspurs form suggests this could change. A hard horse to ignore and with 53.5kg on its back, must be considered one of the main hopes. 19 – SIMENON (Barrier 12), 53.5kg, J: Richard Hughes, T: William Mullins. Career = 32:6-4-6, Last 10 = 165545-4223 Odds - $16 Ticks all the boxes this horse. Generally races at distances 3000m-4400m so the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup is of no concern. Also generally races at 60kg-70kg so the drop to 53.5kg is a huge plus. Has Group form in Europe with a 2nd in the Ascot Gold Cup (4000m G1) and 2nd in the Lonsdale Cup (3300m G2) and enjoyed a solid Aussie debut when 3rd in the Herbert Power (2400m G2). Probably doesn’t have the speed to go with others if the race is run at a tempo like last year however if it’s a true staying race, Simenon will most definitely feature in the finish. 20 – IBICENCO (Barrier 17), 53kg, J: Luke Nolen, T: Peter Moody. Career = 21:4-3-2, Last 10 = 41-59461801 Odds - $71 Ibicenco’s form is a bit contradictory. Won a Sandown Cup (3200m Listed) last prep before a ‘so so’ 8th in the Naturalism (2000m G3) and a shocking 12th in the Metropolitan (2400m G1), before winning the Geelong Cup (2400m G3) quite convincingly. Media Puzzle, On A Jeune, Bauer and Dunaden have all won the Geelong Cup before either winning or placing 2nd in the Melbourne Cup so it’s traditionally a good form guide, however this year’s field wasn’t as strong as years past. It does get in well at the weights and whilst I think Ibicenco is a definite top 10 chance, it’s hard to see it featuring in the top 4. Could be the roughie that wrecks everyone’s Trifecta’s and First 4’s….. 21 – VEREMA (Barrier 3), 53kg, J: Christophe Lemaire, T: Alain de Royer Dupre. Career = 12:4-2-1, Last 10 = 45144-32511 Odds - $16 Trainer Alain de Royer Dupre (Americain 2010) and jockey Christophe Lemaire (Dunaden 2011) are both back for a tilt at their second Melbourne Cup. De Royer Dupre claims Verema is in better shape than Americain was in 2010 and it’s hard to argue. 3rd in the Dubai Gold Cup (3200m G3), 1st in the Prix de Nieuil (2800m G2) and most recently defeating champion stayer Joshua Tree in the Kergorlay (3000m G2) puts Verema in as one of the main hopes. Great barrier, light weight on its back, Verema will be there at the finish. If you can get $15+ for this horse, it’s massive overs. 22 – DEAR DEMI (Barrier 16), 51kg, J: Chris Munce, T: Clarry Conners. Career = 28:6-5-6, Last 10 = 52167-73832 Odds - $21 One of the best value horses in the race. Won last year’s Crown Oaks (2500m G1) with a brilliant run and her form has continued into 2013. This prep has seen a victory in The Roses (2000m G3), 3rd in the Underwood (1800m G1), 8th in the Turnbull (2000m G1), 3rd in the Caulfield Cup (2400m G1) and 2nd in the Mackinnon Stakes (2000m G1) and with the exception of the Turnbull (54.5kg) was all done with 56kg or more on her back. She now drops back to 51kg for the Melb Cup and is absolutely primed for a big run. History shows us that 51kg horses always perform well in the Cup with Kelinni (4th 2012), Niwot (8th 2011), Maluckyday (2nd 2010) and Shocking (1st 2009) all carrying 51kg. Expect her to drop to the rail at the rear of the field upon the gates opening and then weave her way through. Big chance and great value @ $21. 23 – TRES BLUE (Barrier 20), 51kg, J: Tommy Berry, T: Gai Waterhouse. Career = 10:4-2-1, Last 10 = 291-6513211 Odds - $26 Like Dear Demi, Tres Blue gets into the field at 51kg. Comes to Australia on the back of 2nd in the German Derby (2400m G1), 1st in the Prix de Reux (2500m G3) and 1st in the Prix Deauville (2500m G2). A very raw horse and quite young to be travelling internationally but from all reports has settled in quite well. The wide barrier, age of the horse and big field of the Melbourne Cup is most definitely a concern but if they can be overcome, there’s no reason why Tres Blue can’t win. A good each way chance and must be included in Trifecta’s and First 4’s. 24 – RUSCELLO (Barrier 24), 50kg, J: Chad Schofield, T: Ed Walker. Career = 18:5-3-4, Last 10 = 81-39433321 Odds - $71 After leading Shamus Award to the Cox Plate, apprentice jockey Chad Schofield has experienced a whirlwind fortnight. With a history making Melbourne Cup win not out of the question, Chad Schofield’s Ruscello must be the sentimental favourites for punters. Sneaks into the field after its Lexus Stakes win (2500m G3) on Saturday, its only other Australian run being 2nd in a 0-84 race over 2000m at Caulfield in October. On 17 of its 18 starts you couldn’t possibly consider it for a Melbourne Cup win but history shows the Lexus Stakes is a very good form guide for the Melbourne Cup. Has to overcome the widest barrier but barriers can prove to be irrelevant for horses with light weights on their backs as shown by Shocking in 2009 (1st from barrier 21 with 51kg). Trainer Ed Walker stated on Saturday that the horse was unlikely to accept for the Melbourne Cup however the owners convinced him otherwise. This suggests the horse struggles to back up quickly and seeing as this Melbourne Cup is harder to pick than a broken nose, that’s enough for me to dismiss his chances of a victory.
Posted on: Mon, 04 Nov 2013 18:47:58 +0000
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