Mr. Moisi fears we may see the return of sleepwalkers - a term used by the historian Christopher Clark. In 1914 European politicians in Vienna, Berlin, Paris, London, Belgrade and St. Petersburg were said to sleepwalk the political stage, setting off blunders, which led to fatal decisions of historical importance. They had failed to find satisfactory compromises, resigned themselves to the inevitability of war. Are Western politicians today as lethargic as those a century ago? Not quite, today most of them are rational players and are aware of the costs and risks of military actions. World War One warns us against misunderstandings and unintended actions in a conflict, which have the potential of a larger conflagration. The Balkans was a peripheral region in Eastern Europe, far from the centres of power and wealth. That it came to be the venue of a historical drama had much to do with the complexities of European imperial politics. What happened in Sarajevo was a local conflic, but it had turned into a global struggle, which had killed fifteen million people, destroyed three empires, and permanently altered world history. Will the tensions in Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East trigger a reprise of 1914? Mr. Moisi says the entire world has come to resemble Europe in 1914. More importantly he sees the situation today could be considered even more dangerous, as the world today is haunted by the specter of a nuclear apocalypse. Compared to a century ago, Europe is a region of stability, Thanks to the European Union, there is little risk that politicians would demolish the decades of work that secure its freedom and prosperity. Yet they have little influence on the conflict in Ukraine. Although Russia had annexed Crimea they havent been able to hold Vladimir Putin to account. In Asia and the Middle East, they see a rise of nationalism and militancy, as well as a bunch of rivalling power holders, who pride themselves on growth and ruling power. There is a risk that after having stumbled through crisis after crisis, they finally convince themselves that war may be the only solution to their conflicts. In Syria the protests against the Assad regime were responded with brutal crackdowns, which very rapidly morphed into a civil war, that was being hijacked by more extreme groups. The spillover effect is deeply felt in Lebanon and Turkey. Worst of all it is starting to unravel the boundaries of Iraq and Syria, drawn nearly a century ago by British and French colonialists. Many of us fear the geopolitical conflict in East Asia could spiral out of control, prompted by unintended signals sent by China and Japan, the worlds second and third largest economies. The two are in a state of un-moderated rivalry. China’s self-assertiveness and military buildup are generating tension with Japan and various countries in the South China Sea. A century ago there were no United Nations and other international organisations, that hold the international community together. It surely makes a difference today. We may not have perfect peace, nor will we have a World War Three neither.
Posted on: Sun, 29 Jun 2014 22:00:48 +0000
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