My article appeared in Garhwal Post today. Here goes: India and China AN UNEASY RELATIONSHIP “I remember many a time when our senior generals came to us, and wrote to the defence ministry saying that they wanted certain things... If we had had foresight, known exactly what would happen, we would have done something else... what India has learnt from the Chinese invasion is that in the world of today there is no place for weak nations... We have been living in an unreal world of our own creation. This is what India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru candidly admitted after the Chinese army had mauled the Indian forces 51 years ago. The Chinese had marched into India and the resistance offered to the advancing troops by the Indian troops was seriously hampered by lack of manpower (estimated one soldier for every six of China), arms and equipment. It was widely felt that India’s perception of China’s attitude towards India was in keeping with the Panchsheel philosophy, and that ‘Hindi-Chini bhai bhai’ was a fact of life. It was a comprehensive defeat for our forces, and a humiliation that the nation has not forgotten. The issues that plagued Sino-India bilateral relations had a lot to do with the McMahon Line. The Chinese, who were never ruled by the British, have shown no inclination to accept an international border drawn by an official appointed by the British Crown. Their claim over Tibet is another factor which keeps the issues between the two giant neighbours simmering. To China’s credit, even after the comprehensive domination they enjoyed in terms of their military strength they have not mounted any major attack on Indian territory after 1962. Even then, they had withdrawn unilaterally, and vacated even those positions they were successful in wresting from India. Their claim over some territories currently under Indian control; and their continued objections to India’s Tibet policy notwithstanding, the Chinese are interested in enhancing the already healthy trade relations that exist between the two Asian superpowers. In June last year, China expressed its vision that Sino-Indian ties could be the most important bilateral partnership of the century. That month Wen Jiabao, the Chinese Premier and Manmohan Singh, India’s PM, looked at the possibility of increasing bilateral trade between the two countries to US$100 billion by 2015. The Chinese share the perception that the potential trade relationship between the world’s two most populous countries cannot be overstated. The two countries have traditions of socio-cultural exchanges. Trade is also a historical legacy, and today the trade relations have a very good platform ready for a major launch. The two sides have had frequent interactions at the highest levels. Parleys between the two Prime Ministers on the side of international forums, as well as bilateral summits, have taken place in recent years. There are a number of issues on which India and China have been cooperating. It must be stressed that there is a strategic reason behind this collaboration: for a long time, the two countries have been sceptical about American supremacy; and saw a possibility that second tier countries like themselves could work together to balance American power. Recently, these countries have coordinated their stands on a number of global issues. Most salient of which are, the climate change negotiations in Copenhagen and the Doha trade negotiations, where one led and the other followed and, as a result, the negotiations collapsed. Western countries have not fought shy of blaming India and China for the collapse of these negotiations. It is thus manifest that these countries can coordinate on global issues, and both see a larger reality that the West-dominated global economic order needs to be challenged by emerging powers, especially India and China. The realisation that with these two economic powers joining hands on major international issues like climate and trade practices, the rest of the world will have no choice but to tailor their policies so as to suit what the dragon and the elephant desire. The financial crisis the world is passing through has prompted demand for the restructuring of global economic institutions. No wonder, therefore, that China and India have both influenced the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to gain a greater role for them, and assert their position in these institutions in realistic terms, keeping their geopolitical position in mind. The two countries are also “sovereignty hawks” and have opposed hegemony-driven military interventions led by the Western powers. One can see that even the USA is in no position to recklessly meddle in international affairs, and intervene in other countries’ affairs as it was doing not too far back. The retreat from an imminent intervention in Syria is a case in point. It is known that both India and China have understood that energy security is an area which can only be ignored at great peril to the future of the economic prosperity of these countries. A few years ago, there was speculation that China and India might cooperate on energy security, taking into consideration their common interests. That relationship did not materialize, and instead they are competing for greater dominance against each other in controlling oil fields across the globe. New fields for oil exploration are increasingly witnessing the presence of these two bidders. There is an enhanced realisation that dependence on import for energy resources is what determines the economic position, and since it is such a crucial factor in their balance of trade situation, both countries want to secure their energy supplies on advantageous terms. As a result of this, the early potential for cooperation in the energy sector seems to have all but burned out. As a matter of fact there are, apart from territorial issues, other areas of divergence too among India and China. The latter’s various actions in recent years seem to have convinced Indian observers and analysts that China does not take Indian security concerns very seriously and does not possibly recognize India as a major global player either. It is now being recognised by Indian policy-makers and strategists that there are significant reasons for a lack of trust in her giant neighbour. Such a belief has developed owing to various actions of the dragon, and the elephant is, therefore, not immune to the possibility of a deathly bite from the slithering neighbour. In 1998 the then Indian Defence Minister’s statement that China is India’s number one enemy created a major backlash, and many Indian commentators immediately contested the minister’s assertion. However, today, there may be more reasons to look at China as a neighbour which may not be entirely dormant on the military front. The architecture of Indian foreign policy as it has developed since then has been a reaction to China’s growing presence in world affairs. China has a huge population which has experienced the gains of capitalist economy recently. There is realisation that her position in world affairs, both economic and strategic, is such that it can dominate the stage. Hence there is an acceptance of the reality that significant divergence of interests exists between the two great nations vying for greater economic prosperity. There certainly is some convergence on environmental and economic issues, yet the relationship remains fraught with tension. That does not mean that India should take on China militarily, but it does mean that New Delhi should respond more proactively to what China seems to be doing in regard to India and the surrounding region. Based merely on commonality of India’s approach to the western countries in trading and environment, the military positioning cannot be taken for granted. China can always make its much superior military power to come to bear on other bilateral issues as well. It is evident that this realization influences Indian policy-making today. This is a very crucial aspect in India’s foreign policy and will determine most of the initiatives that India will take with respect to China. India and China are not allies in geopolitical issues. Each will of course be driven by individual national interests. China will tailor its responses with an eye on the fact that India is poised to take long strides in the next decade, and is likely to sit next to it in size of its economy. China is aware of the positive role that a country of India’s soft power status is bound to play in the next couple of decades. In pure trading terms as well, the enormous potential of bilateral trade as well as cooperation in the international sphere are going to influence China’s relationship with India. The military dimension of the Indo- Chinese relationship is such that China enjoys a considerable edge in its striking strength. It has to be acknowledged that China already controls much of the disputed territory along the international border. Significantly, the territory in the western sector, Aksai Chin, which is strategically key for China’s aspirations for dominance in the power equation in the region is under China’s control. It can be said that a continuation of status quo does not hurt China, and it can sit pretty notwithstanding certain unresolved issues of other territories. It has to be accepted that China occupies the high ground facilitating its forces’ easier movement across the Tibetan plateau. India, on the other hand, has to move uphill in the inhospitable rugged terrain of the Himalayas. China has reportedly developed fine roads on the border, giving it great advantage when it comes to actual troop movement. In order to improve its foothold in the strategically crucial India Ocean, China has been making emphatic and deliberate efforts to woo Sri Lanka. It is no secret that Pakistan and China could be potential allies while dealing with India, and that Myanmar is already close to China. It has to be acknowledged that apart from purely strategic equations, China also seeks access to the Indian Ocean by strengthening its commercial and political relationships with the three littoral states, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Myanmar. India needs to enhance its naval capabilities. This is one aspect of military preparedness where India can build upon an existing advantage. On land, India is still woefully inadequate, and China has made huge strides to wrest major advantage. While India arms itself for the worst-possible scenario, there is need to diplomatically keep China assured that the build up is not bilateral, but in response to the need to respond to its own security perimeter on a larger canvas. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s trip to Beijing has come at a challenging time. There is the prospect of a new border settlement being inked. It is very important in the context of the issue of stapled visas being issued to Indians who belong to Arunanchal Pradesh. This keeps the pot simmering, and the Indian delegation just cannot overlook such provocation when working on the nitty-gritty of the border settlement. There is no doubt that both China and India have great stakes on the world stage, and there is also the undeniable effort on both sides to assert themselves as major regional powers in South and South-East Asia. Apart from the strategic significance of this summit between the two most populous countries’ leaders, there is great expectation that trade relations between India and China will also turn a new leaf. This is important because right now the bilateral balance of trade between the two countries is heavily tilted in favour of China. India, the elephant and China, the dragon, may appear to be strange in each other’s company if the two wish to forge a partnership. One is way ahead of the other in its international standing, both in terms of its military and economy, yet there is no doubt that it can ignore the other only at the risk of being blind to the potential of the other. While one is an established hard power, the other is a major soft power. China’s strategy over the last several decades has been to keep India wondering about the real intentions of its military. International recognition of India’s undoubted soft-power status is also not very well received by China. Should India become assured that China is to be treated as a strategic partner, and there is no fear of China’s expansionistic aspirations for it, then India will have to deal with only one irritant, the other neighbour, Pakistan. This will allow India to concentrate more on development and economic growth. This is something that China is not comfortable with. The summit meeting can make significant contribution to ease this attitude.
Posted on: Thu, 24 Oct 2013 11:27:21 +0000
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