My friends in the Philippines... another low pressure is forming east of the Philippines that could bring more heavy rains to the southern and central parts of the Philippines Monday night or Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday. See links below: usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9013.gif usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-vis.html goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGMSVSW.JPG WTPN21 PGTW 101700 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 138.0E TO 9.6N 129.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 101158Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. A 101200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR INDICATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.5 MB. THE 10/12Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM KOROR SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST (ALONG 10N LATITUDE) WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 111700Z.// NNNN
Posted on: Sun, 10 Nov 2013 18:57:56 +0000
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