NAM tonight is super dry with this weak forcing, and the SREF is very much on the dry side despite ECMWF and HRRR having a nice central OK winter precip blob on Wed morning. Here is an instance where I will give the nod to the HRRR and ECMWF over the ensemble. Mesonet is cold and dry, and if there is forcing I suspect that area will be mid-upper 20s. Mesonet soil temps show that we have been cool for a while with freezing bare soil temps recently, though we are on the rebound. With warm nose likely to start with, I will go with a freezing rain/sleet/snow mix in a light band somewhere in sw-c OK Wed morning. Enough to cause hazardous travel for schoolers in some spots, but far below warning criteria. Ill go with a 30% chance of seeing some precip in Norman (higher farther west and north). A good chunk of our winter weather around here seems to be these really light QPF days, so I wouldnt sleep on this one. If HRRR signal continues trend of stronger precip I would go for a little more significant event given icing potential.
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 04:18:39 +0000
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