NAMIBIA BEYOND THE 2014 NATIONAL ELECTIONS: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES Public Lecture organized by Form for the Future on November 22 2014 By Phil ya Nangoloh A. INTRODUCTORY REMARKS It would be meaningless and even impossible for me to identify prospects and challenges beyond the 2014 national polls, without identifying the prospects and challenges that have characterized in Namibia in the past, meaning before the 2014 national elections. But before going much deeper into this topic, I would like to define what “election” as well as “prospects” and “challenges” mean. 1. Election Under normal circumstances and in a constitutional democracy, such as Namibia, an “election” is a political decision-making process whereby citizens decide to choose or elect certain individuals to hold public office, such as government. Therefore to “choose” or to “elect” means you decide which one of several candidates or parties will best serve your own personal needs as well as the needs of other fellow citizens. An election is also the time period, usually one or two days, when and or whereby citizens have an opportunity to reward a politician for a job well done or even punish or fire him and or her for failing to deliver on his or her promises. More often than not, such promises are listed in a manifesto of a political party. They are also made at political rallies during an electoral campaign. Today, being November 22 2014, various political parties are holding political rallies throughout the country where they, for the last time, make promises before the choosing day, being November 28 2014. 2. Prospects and Challenges Also known as an opportunity, a “prospect” is the possibility and likelihood that a good or desirable thing or development may happen or take place in the near future. A “challenge”, on the other hand, is the opposite of a prospect. In other words, a “challenge” means the possibility and or the likelihood that an undesirable thing or development may take place also in the near future. B. PROMISES MADE IN THE PAST By “the past” I am referring to two separate periods of Independence: (1) the period between March 21 1990 and March 21 2005 (i.e. 15 years), when former Namibian President, Sam Nujoma, was in power; and (2) the period from March 21 2005 to March 21 2015 (i.e. 10 years), when incumbent and out-going Namibian President, Lucas Pohamba, will have been in power for 10 years. 1. Nujoma’s Talk-Left-Walk-Right Promises Speaking at a political rally near Oshakati on or around October 8 1989 former President Nujoma promised that “there will be no poor people in Namibia under a SWAPO government”. Nujoma explained that in a Namibia under his SWAPO government every Namibian, regardless of his or her skin color, “will own a piece of land”. Can Job Amupanda and other land activists hear this? Mr. Nujoma boasted that his SWAPO party had in its ranks well trained agriculturalists that were only waiting for the rain to come in order to start producing enough food for everyone in the country! He also boasted that a SWAPO government would govern Namibia very well “and we will do it better than the Boers”. Nujoma also promised his listeners and the whole nation that his government would use Namibia’s rich and vast mineral resources, such as uranium and diamonds to prevent poverty in the country. So, with those promises by Nujoma, the prospects for the period between March 21 1990 and March 21 2005 looked very good and challenges, if any at all, very minimal! 1.1. Poverty Increased However, what ensued was the contrary. Poverty, hunger, homelessness and or landlessness, unemployment, crime and corruption have increased dramatically soon after March 21 1990. 1.2. Armed Conflict Ensued Armed conflict occurred in Ohangwena, Kavango and Caprivi and, as a result, many people died or disappeared. Many more have lost their sources livelihood, such as their cattle, shops and tourism businesses. Hence, poverty, hunger and unemployment also increased melodramatically in those areas. 1.3. Disgruntled Ex-Combatants Dissatisfied ex-PLAN combatants sooner thereafter also started to make demands for employment in government and eventually for war veteran pay-outs. 1.4. Ethnic Tensions Throughout the country, inter-ethnic and inter-tribal conflicts--(such as the conflict between Ovambolanders and Kaokolanders, between Ndongas and Kwanyamas, between Kwanyamas and Mbadjas, between Ovambos and Kavangos, between Hereros and Damaras, between San and Hereros and so on)--also increased. The threat to peace and stability as well as national unity could not have been greater! 1.5. North-to-South Migration Internal migration of people from the North to the South and from the rural areas and urban areas also increased theatrically. This state of affairs rapidly led to the mushrooming of shanty houses, shebeen ownership and street vending. This in turn also led to even more increase in the rates of unemployment, poverty, homelessness, landlessness, hunger, crime and gender-based violence, baby-dumping, human trafficking, prostitution and disease. 1.6. Corruption Corruption in government has even more increased. Huge sums and hundreds of millions public money have disappeared as a result of a spate of corruption scams at the Development Brigade Corporation, ODC, GIPF, TransNamib, Road Authority and several other governmental and semi-governmental institutions. 1.7. Autocratic Conduct and Divisive Tactics Autocratic and divide-and-rule tactics have also increased and have become the order of the day as enormous public pressure was brought to bear upon Nujoma to deliver on his 1989 promises. The Namibian nation became polarized as individuals and groups are pitted against each other! 1.8. Intra-Party Tensions Tensions also started to emerge within the ruling party itself and its affiliated labor union, NUNW. This resulted in, among other things, the summary axing of former Trade Minister Hidipo Hamutenya as well as the removal of several NUNW trade unionists, such as Risto Kapenda, Peter Naholo, Ndapewa Nghipandulwa, Mirjam Hamutenya and Evilastus Kaaronda. This list goes on and on. 1.9. Foreign Ownership of Resources The Nujoma era has also seen drastic increase in foreign ownership of this country’s mineral and other natural resources. Among others, Chinese, Lebanese and other foreign companies have become owners of our resources through the mining of uranium, base metal and oil explorations. Foreigners also become owners of Namibia’s resources through the acquisition and selling of exclusive prospecting licenses (“EPLs”) by a small group of individual Namibians closely connected to Nujoma! 2. President Pohamba’s Non-Legacy Faced with a whole mountain of the aforementioned highly embarrassing socio-political and socio-economic hardships, incumbent President Lucas Pohamba promised to combat, “tooth and nail”, the scourge of Corruption which has reached kleptocratic proportions. President Pohamba promised to release and lay bare the more than 14 corruption reports of the various Presidential Commissions of Enquiry into corruption. These reports were compiled during the Nujoma era. However, although President Pohamba has been more inclusive and more tolerant than his predecessor Nujoma, he has not only failed to release said corruption reports, but corruption has increased even more quickly under his rule. Good examples include the scandalous Chinese scholarship affair as well as several other scams involving, among other things, the awarding of lucrative tenders to Pohamba’s political cronies and even relatives. In the meantime, several socio-economic crises---such as the education crisis, unemployment crisis, health care crisis and housing crisis, which have originated and have their roots in the Nujoma era--continued unabatedly to hurt the majority of Namibians. As a matter of fact, these crises have even deteriorated much further during the Pohamba era. C. SUMMARY OF CURRENT CHALLENGES The Namibian people are currently facing almost insurmountable challenges. I will divide these into two main categories: (1) socio-economic challenges, and (2) socio-political challenges. 1. Socio-economic Challenges Socio-economic challenges include: (1) inequitable distribution of income; (2) abject poverty; (3) hunger; disease; (4) homelessness and or landlessness; (5) youth and female unemployment; (6) kleptocratic corruption; and (7) gross maladministration. 2. Socio-political Challenges Socio-political challenges include the following: (1) unresolved Herero-Nama demand reparations for genocide; (2) the unresolved issue of missing persons who have disappeared on the both side of the armed conflict before Namibian independence; (3) war-related victims of pre-independence armed conflict inside the country; (4) persons who have disappeared during the armed conflict which occurred along our northwestern, northern and northeastern borders in the Ohangwena and Kavango regions as well as in Caprivi Strip; (5) the Caprivi Strip dispute and scandalous Caprivi High Treason Trial; (6) the thorny issue of payouts for ex-PLAN fighters and former SWATF/Koevoet soldiers; (7) the issue of Children of the Liberation Struggle; (8) the burgeoning issue of shebeens; (9) the issue of eviction and harassment of street vendors; (10) the demolition and eviction of poor people from their shacks in the urban areas of the country; (11) the land dispossession in the communal areas, involving the traditional authorities and communal land boards; (12) systematic exploitation of workers (who include domestic workers, security guards and other marginalized workers in especially the private sector); (13) issue of worst forms of child labor; (14) gender-based violence; and (15) the ownership and control of this country’s mineral and other natural resources by foreigners, to mention just a few! The above socio-economic and socio-political challenges have originated in the Nujoma era and have become even more deep-rooted Pohamba era. D. PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES BEYOND 2014 ELECTIONS Having identified so many challenges that have been hurting the people of Namibia, and as especially the poor people, during the Nujoma and Pohamba eras, I now return to the likely prospects and challenges for the incoming Hage Geingob era. I believe every realistic person agrees with me that it is not if or whether but, rather, to what extent Prime Minister Hage Geingob and his SWAPO Party will be winning the imminent national elections come November 28 2014. Let me to start with the prospects. 1. Prospects The mere fact that Prime Minister Hage Geingob is the first-ever non-Ovambo president in our independence history is a prospect. Because this state of affairs has created huge hopes among especially Namibia’s politically marginalized non-Ovambo population which had argued that the government was only catering for ethnic Ovambos. The fact that the Nujoma and Pohamba eras are soon things of the past is a prospect in and by itself. This scheme of things has also created enormous expectations in certain Civil Society, Private Sector, Academia and Ecclesia circles that there will be a fundamental change and departure by Geingob from especially the autocratic and divisive Nujoma legacy. 2. Challenges As incoming Namibian President, Prime Minister Hage Geingob is facing an almost unwinnable battle against the socio-political and socio-economic challenges inherited from the previous kleptocratic Nujoma and Pohamba eras. 2.1. Intra-Party Divisions The most serious and most immediate challenge President Hage Geingob is facing is widespread and deep-rooted intra-party divisions, not only along ethnic lines, but also along ideological and political lines. 2.1.1. Inner-Party Election Results The fires of hurt and bitterness resulting from Geingob’s victory at the December 2012 SWAPO Party Congress following a vicious campaign for the position of SWAPO Party Vice President have not yet been extinguished. This situation has deteriorated even further following the results of the August 28-29 2014 SWAPO Party Electoral College. These results are said by a large number of SWAPO Party leaders to have resulted from de-campaigning by certain people closely affiliated with Prime Minister Hage Geingob. 2.1.2. Dog-Nyam-Dog SPYL Struggle As if the above is not grave enough, Geingob is also facing an enormous challenge coming from a vicious dog-nyam-dog internecine power and or ideological struggle within SWAPO Party Youth League (“SPYL”) ranks. SPYL is divided into two main camps. One such camps is led radicalized youth activists led by now-suspended youth leaguer Job Amupanda and his mass actionist and civil disobediencist colleagues, Dhimbulukeni Nauyoma and George Kambala, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, moderate to conservative and opportunist camp led by pro-Geingobist SPYL Secretary for Economic Affairs, Veikko Nekundi and NYC kingpin, Mandela Kapere. 2.2. Inexperienced Executive Branch The period beyond 2014 election will also see the installation of an almost entirely new executive branch with very little or no previous experience in governance. This state of affairs is likely to lead to widespread mala-administration in the public sector. Mala-administration is closely associated with corruption! 2.3. Money-Making vs Service Delivery The post 2014 period is likely to be plagued by even more widespread corruption in the public sector because people have been joining SWAPO Party, not because they want to serve the people of Namibia, but merely because they want to create wealth for themselves and their families. This in turn is likely to create even more intra-SWAPO Party tensions and spark an extra-SWAPO Party revolt by the general public. 2.4. Geingob’s Luxurious Lifestyle The real or perceived image of Prime Minister Hage Geingob as person who is addicted to luxurious life-styles is another very serious challenge facing Namibia in the post-2014 election period. This state of affairs could also spark a national revolution aimed at Geingob’s pre-mature ouster as President. 2.5. Continuity vs Change Prime Minister Geingob’s promise to continue, rather than to change the direction of, the Nujoma legacy is likely to haunt his image as an independent-minded statesman. Moreover, to continue with Nujoma legacy could be perceived to mean that the enormous socio-economic and socio-political challenges listed under Chapter C above will continue unabatedly. One can hardly maintain peace, stability and prosperity in amidst of the gross socio-economic and social political hardships referred to under Chapter C supra. There is therefore an urgent need of a fundamental departure from the Nujoma and Pohamba legacies! 2.6. Geingob’s Age The other grave challenge facing Namibia in the post-2014 election era is Prime Minister Geingob’s age, now at 73. By the time he completes his first term President Geingob will be 78 years old. This also means that, at the age of 83 by the time his second term ends in 2025, Geingob would be the oldest President in independent Namibia’s history! President Pohamba will step down at the age of 79, while President Nujoma retired at the age of 76. 2.7. Divided and Polarized Society One of the biggest challenges facing Namibia beyond the 2014 elections is political polarization of the Namibian society exacerbated ethnic politics and ethnicity and or tribalism. Unless, inter alia, the reactionary inequitable distribution of wealth is arrested urgently, this deep-rooted political polarization will surely continue. Peace, stability and prosperity for a few can simply not be sustainable. 2.8. Universal Youth Revolution Perhaps the most imminent grave challenge facing Namibia in the post 2014 elections is a violent youth revolution sparked by the feudalist handling of land in the urban areas. Gordon The-Dime Josephre is real possibility of a violent youth revolution in this country as evidenced by burgeoning all-party and countrywide tensions between the young generation, on the one hand, and older generation, on the other. END
Posted on: Sun, 23 Nov 2014 04:52:30 +0000
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