NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THU JAN 30 2014: - TopicsExpress

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THU JAN 30 2014: MODEL CONSENSUS IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD PASSING THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DEFINITELY NOT THE EASIEST FORECAST GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN SOME CASES...THIS FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BRING THE BEST PRECIP TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR TWO. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD....NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AGAIN AND BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION WITH THE GFS KEEPING MORE PRECIP NORTH. ULTIMATELY...THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THE PATTERN IS CHANGING AND MORE STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION

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