NBA Draft Notebook: Better Wing Prospect, Justise Winslow or Stanley Johnson?: Big men have dominated most of the 2015 NBA draft conversation, but theres a fascinating battle happening amongst the wings. Four wing players could be vying for lottery or even top-five consideration as we march closer to June. Right now, however, of those playing at the Division I level, its Duke freshman Justise Winslow and Arizona freshman Stanley Johnson whove stood out most under the NBA lens. As two-way small forwards, each actually brings many of the same strengths to the table. Over the next few months, theres bound to be plenty of good debate within NBA scouting departments over which 18-year-old is the better prospect. Physical Tools, Athleticism There isnt much to criticize regarding either of their physical profiles. Both Johnson and Winslow have rock-solid builds and next-level athleticism that play to the safety they offer as prospects. Johnsons diesel frame ultimately separates him at the position. Hes got 45 pounds on a kid like Andrew Wiggins, a fellow wing and last years No. 1 overall pick. While Johnson is more of a power wing, hes not as explosive as Winslow, whos got bouncier above-the-rim springs, a quality that helps drive his captivating upside. Winslow blends lightning quickness and electric burst, and so far, its translated to much better numbers in the drive-and-slash game. Hes finishing at a far superior rate at the rim than Johnson, whos had to rely on transition opportunities for 54.2 percent of his shots made there. In the half court, Johnson is just 11-of-32 at the rim for an alarming 34.4 percent. Winslow is 25-of-42 for 59.3 percent. Johnsons struggles at the rim have raised some eye brows, according to ESPNs Chad Ford (subscription required). On one hand, hes taking 6.1 free-throw attempts per game to Winslows 4.3, which is encouraging. On the other, youll often see Johnson try harder to seek out contact and draw the foul than actually score the bucket. Theyve both been strong finishers in transition; Winslow is slightly better, having made 15-of-19 at the rim (78.9 percent) to Johnsons 13-of-18 (72.2 percent). But against set defenses in the half court, its Winslow whos been more effective finishing off drives, slashes and cuts. Offensive Attack Despite their production, Johnson and Winslow both lack offensive polish in terms of one-on-one shot creativity. Neither quite projects as a go-to option. Theyre similar in that they each thrive as opportunistic scorers—wings capable of finishing the plays that find them in the offense as opposed to wings whom youd feature in isolation. Check out their stats as of January 12 (16 games for Johnson, 15 for Winslow): Based on the numbers early on, Johnson has looked like the more complete overall scorer. Its not just the higher field-goal percentage and point-per-game average—its how hes achieved them. Winslow might be more threatening as a finisher on the move, but Johnson has been much sharper in between the three-point arc and basket. Hes shooting a terrific 52.9 percent in that range to Winslows scary 13.8 percent on just four made two-point jumpers through 15 games. Johnson has shown the ability to stop-and-pop or convert using runners and floaters within the second level of the defense. His offensive attack is a lot more balanced than Winslows, whos scoring versatility has been limited to just shooting and finishing. As the more accurate shooter and diverse scorer, youd imagine Johnson would have an easier time with the transition. It wouldnt be too surprising if Winslow struggled offensively as an NBA rookie. Defense, Intangibles In terms of defensive tools, both guys offer lockdown potential and valuable versatility, which speaks to their two-way appeal. Between their size, length, strength and foot speed, they project as wings who could guard top-perimeter scorers and up to three positions on the floor. Johnson has been the bigger playmaker, averaging 1.6 steals a game (to Winslows .9). Hes made it a habit of jumping passing lanes or swooping in as a thief off the ball. On the ball, hes had a few impressive showings playing quality competition. Against Michigan on December 13, Johnson held potential lottery pick Caris LeVert to just three points while guarding him, and despite the loss to UNLV on December 23, he held potential first-rounder Rashad Vaughn to two points while sticking him as well (though Vaughn drew other defenders throughout the game). Winslow has also been outstanding at the defensive end, where he can apply suffocating pressure in the full and half court. Coach Mike Krzyzewski recently told ESPNs Jeff Goodman that Winslow is the best wing defender out of the gate hes had since Grant Hill. From an individual matchup standpoint, his most notable performance came against Wisconsins Sam Dekker, an athletic 69 wing who scored just five points in a loss to Duke back on December 3. Winslows motor and activity level are nonstop, yet he still operates with discipline at both ends of the floor, a testament to his intangibles. He averages 2.2 assists to just 1.5 turnovers per game, and though not the most threatening playmaker, hes been a good decision maker and passer. Meanwhile, some folks have questioned Johnson, with ESPNs Chad Ford recently noting that It appears that there have been some concerns about Johnsons defensive effort. Though I wouldnt get too carried away or worried, given the intensity and fire he plays with, his tendency to lose control or develop offensive tunnel vision does seem like something to look into. Hes averaging more turnovers (2.6 per game) than assists (1.7 per game), which translates to an ugly negative 5.21 pure point rating. Overall At the end of the day, were talking about two tremendously talented wings wholl enter the draft as priority targets. Based on the numbers and eye test, wed suspect that its Johnson whos more ready to compete at the NBA level. Hes got the body to defend and the shooting stroke to score off the ball, as well as the more polished skill set when it comes to capitalizing as an in-between scorer. However, if youre swinging for upside, than its Winslow whos your answer. Hes got the more potent athletic ability that leads to uncontested buckets, along with the team-player intangibles you just cant teach. Winslows offensive attack isnt as refined, but hes got a promising jumper and plenty of time to sharpen his skills. Realistically, Im not sure you could go wrong with either Johnson or Winslow, whether youre picking at No. 10 overall or No. 5. But theyre not the only wings making a case as top-10 options in 2015. Croatias Mario Hezonja and Kansas Kelly Oubre are two guys quietly on the rise. The Top-Five International Dark-Horse Mario Hezonja has been on the radar since winning MVP of the Under-16 European Championships back in 2011. Only having signed with Barcelona over a year ago, his role has been limited as a teenager on a senior pro team. However, over the past six weeks, Hezonjas minutes and production have been up, and its allowed scouts to get a much better look at one of the most naturally gifted prospects overseas. At 68, Hezonja has a textbook basketball body (for a wing) to match some breathtaking athleticism. And he continues to showcase his sweet three-point stroke, having hit 17-of-39 attempts (43.5 percent) over his last 10 games. Against Unicaja Malagna on Sunday, he lined up a shot (up one, 20 seconds left in the third quarter) from about six feet behind the arc and nailed it with comfort and confidence. In between, hes made a few plays as a driver that highlight his eye-opening NBA potential. Though Hezonja doesnt get the chance to create much for Barcelona, he has shown the ability to separate into jumpers at the junior level. With Hezonja, there are some questions about his style of play, like if he can score without holding onto the ball. And without the opportunity to see him in a featured role, hes become one of the tougher prospects to project. Regardless, if were just talking about sheer upside here, Hezonja might ultimately pack the most of any wing in the 2015 field, thanks to his mismatch two-way physical tools and potentially lethal offensive game. Hell be more of a risk-reward option for whoevers interested, but the reward could be worth a top-five pick if it ever comes to fruition. Kelly Oubre Making a Push After playing sparingly through the first month of the season, Kansas freshman Kelly Oubre has finally found his way into the rotation, having scored in double-figures during four of the Jayhawks last six games. Oubre was a big-time recruit out of high school, and were just starting to see why. At 67, hes a sensational athlete who can handle the ball and score off the dribble, as well as stretch the floor as a shooter. Hes actually shooting it nearly the same from downtown, 45.7 percent, as he is inside the arc, 46.8 percent. Oubre also has all the defensive tools to eventually pose as an asset, though defense doesnt quite come as naturally to him as it does to Johnson and Winslow. Even after the slow start, the top-10 conversation should remain open to Oubre, whose upside is still intact. Hes just a little bit further behind. The more he plays, the better chance hell have to catch up. “If you were to look at it now, he went from probably being the guy that looked the least ready a month ago, to now he looks like he’s by far the most advanced, coach Bill Self told Kansass Rustin Dodd. And that’s the way it is with young kids. Sometimes, the light comes on at different times.” Notables * Syracuse freshman forward Chris McCullough will miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL Sunday night against Florida State. Obviously, the news is devastating—Im not sure he did enough to make a 2015 draft case, meaning hell likely have to return to school, and possibly not until the middle of the season, depending on rehab and his recovery. * Arkansas sophomore power forward Bobby Portis made his strongest NBA pitch of the season Sunday with a 32-point, 11-rebound line over Vanderbilts Damian Jones. He looked like a pro playing amongst college students. Portis grabbed nine offensive boards, showed off his high skill level in the post and dangerous finishing length inside. He isnt the greatest athlete, which makes him tougher to reach on, but I could already see Portis as a value pick in 2015, assuming nobody takes him top 10. * UCLA freshman forward Kevon Looney put up his signature game of the year in a double-overtime win over Stanford Thursday night. He finished with 27 points and 19 boards on 12 shots, having flashed some of the versatility and instincts on the glass that fuel his enticing mismatch potential. Ten of those rebounds were at the offensive end, where he also added two threes and 11 made free throws. Believe it or not, Looney is still a raw offensive player, but at 18 years old, you have to expect teams to chase the upside tied to his physical tools and skill set, the way the Charlotte Hornets did last year with Noah Vonleh at No. 9. * Weve seen a couple of breakout guards actually hit a wall recently. California junior Tyrone Wallace is shooting just 34.4 percent over his last games, with his team losing five of them. Notre Dame senior Jerian Grant had trouble scoring against North Carolina and Virginia, combining to shoot 3-of-16 for a total of 14 points. It shouldnt take too much away from what theyve done so far early on, but its a reminder not to completely jump the gun before conference play even heats up. All advanced stats courtesy of Hoop-math (subscription required), realgm, sports-reference. Basic stats courtesy of ESPN Jonathan Wasserman is Bleacher Reports NBA Draft expert. Follow him on Twitter at @NBADraftWass. Read more NBA news on BleacherReport #Basketball #NCAA #NBA #CollegeBasketball #fantasybasketball
Posted on: Mon, 12 Jan 2015 23:56:25 +0000
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