NERD ALERT!! POSSIBLE NORTHERN LIGHTS SIGHTING tonight and Friday night. NASA is predicting that many parts of the United States (as far south “as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon”) could see the Aurora Borealis in the next few days. A very strong CME (Coronal Mass Ejection, a solar explosion) occurred on Sept 10th and we could feel some of its effects here on Earth by this weekend, including some interruptions in GPS signals, radio interference, and voltage irregularities. Most of those effects will be north of 50°N latitude (roughly, north of Winnipeg). With some breaks in the clouds the next few days, keep an eye on the nighttime sky! Space Weather Message Code: WATA50 Serial Number: 50 Issue Time: 2014 Sep 11 0459 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Sep 12: G2 (Moderate) Sep 13: G3 (Strong) Sep 14: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Comment: Upgrading the Watch for 13-14 Sep due to anticipated effects from the CME associated with yesterdays R3 (Strong) event. Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon. From the NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center: 2014-09-11 05:01 UTC A Pair of CMEs G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms remain in the forecast for September 12th as a result of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R1 (Minor) solar flare observed on the 9th. The latest WSA-Enlil model run has the CME associated with yesterdays R3 (Strong) solar flare arriving mid to late day on that same day. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for September 13th due to the combined influence of these two events with G1 (Minor) storming anticipated to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption yesterday is expected to persist for the next few days. Keep in mind that the forecast periods listed are in Universal Time so aurora watchers in the northern U.S. should be looking for possible activity both Thursday and Friday nights. Stay tuned for updates.
Posted on: Thu, 11 Sep 2014 15:40:51 +0000
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