NOAA National Weather Service National Headquarters National Weather Service All NOAA NWS Search for: Organization News Site Map Home Go Local forecast by Area Forecast Discussion City, St or Zip Code Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK City, St Go Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off RSS Feeds Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 000 FXUS64 KTSA 111144 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 643 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY MVFR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL CARRY VCSH FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CEILINGS LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR RANGE WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/ DISCUSSION... RAINFALL RATES WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION RUNNING ABOUT 10-.25/HR...AND WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALREADY SHIFTING E INTO AR WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH...OTHERWISE EXPECT A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 50S. SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS WEEKEND AS POWERFUL PACIFIC UPPER JET (ROUGHLY ALONG 50N PER WV IMAGERY) DIVES INTO THE PAC NW AND CARVES OUT A LONGWAVE TROF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY SHOVED S OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LEE TROFFING RESULTS IN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. INITIAL STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR...0-1KM VALUES AROUND 40-50KTS...COUPLED WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY LOOKS DRY...AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL AT ODDS AS TO HOW FAST THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS. HAVE ACCEPTED A BLEND FOR NOW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 58 48 73 59 / 30 10 20 90 FSM 62 53 73 64 / 60 30 20 80 MLC 60 48 74 62 / 40 10 20 80 BVO 58 45 73 55 / 20 10 20 90 57 48 68 59 / 50 30 20 80 FYV BYV 55 46 68 59 / 50 30 20 80 MKO 58 49 72 61 / 40 20 20 80 MIO 57 48 70 58 / 30 10 20 90 F10 57 47 74 59 / 30 10 20 80 HHW 65 52 74 64 / 40 10 20 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...20 National Weather Service Disclaimer Privacy Policy National Weather Service National Headquarters Credits About Us 1325 East West Highway Glossary Career Opportunities
Posted on: Sat, 11 Oct 2014 11:50:14 +0000
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