NWS Partners... An upper level trough across the Four-Corners region of the country will slowly approach the region late tonight through Sunday and will provide the necessary lift for the development of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. A frontal boundary which is stalled off the Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana Gulf Coast will begin to slowly move back north as a warm front late tonight and through the day Sunday. An area of low pressure will develop along this boundary across Southeast Texas Sunday Morning and is expected to rapidly move northeast towards the Lower Toledo Bend Reservoir Sunday Afternoon and into Northeast Louisiana Sunday Evening. Copious amounts of low level moisture will be transported northward up and over the returning warm front...setting the stage for a possible heavy rain event across portions of Deep East Texas...into West Central...East Central and Northeast Louisiana. The areas likely to see the most rainfall...beginning late tonight through Sunday Night would be areas along and southeast of a line from Nacogdoches and Center Texas...to Mansfield and Monroe Louisiana. Rainfall accumulations across this region could range between two and four inches with isolated higher amounts. Over the last 10 days, this region has seen between two and four inches of rainfall with some areas having seen in excess of 5 inches. Some area bayous are already at high levels including the Little River in Rochelle, Louisiana which is already above Flood Stage with a morning stage of 32.3 ft. Flood Stage is 32.0 ft in Rochelle, Louisiana. Across the remainder of the region, rainfall amounts with this upcoming event should range between one to two inches with isolated higher amounts. There is a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday Evening across Southern and Southeast Louisiana. At this time...the Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms does not include any parishes across Northern or Northeast Louisiana. This may change...depending on how far north the warm front can move during the day Sunday. If the front were to move further north, then areas along and south of a line from the Lower Toledo Bend Reservoir to near Monroe Louisiana would need to be concerned with the possibility of large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. The graphics below depict the Flash Flood Watch which goes into effect 7 am Sunday Morning and is valid through 7 am Monday Morning and the Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across southern and Southeast Louisiana Sunday through Sunday Evening. Please tune to your local Radio and TV for the latest forecast and conditions. Winn Parish OEP...7:30 pm..5 april 2014...hhf..
Posted on: Sun, 06 Apr 2014 00:33:44 +0000